Canada will hold elections today to choose a new government capable of addressing annexation threats from the United States and directly engaging with President Donald Trump, whose trade war has significantly influenced the campaign.
The Liberal Party, headed by new Prime Minister Mark Carney, appeared set to face a tough defeat against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives until President Trump’s remarks about the country triggered an unexpected shift in polling forecasts.
Mr. Carney, 60, has never been elected to office and only succeeded Justin Trudeau as prime minister last month. Before entering politics, he enjoyed a successful career as an investment banker and served as the central bank governor in both Canada and the UK.
Mr. Carney contends that his extensive global financial experience equips him well to navigate Canada’s response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney holds an election rally in Windsor, Ontario.
Under Mr. Trump, the United States “wants to break us, so they can own us,” he has repeatedly stated throughout the campaign.
“We don’t need chaos; we need calm. We don’t need anger; we need an adult,” Mr. Carney remarked in the final days of the campaign.
Mr. Poilievre, a 45-year-old politician with a long career, has focused on domestic issues that caused Mr. Trudeau to become increasingly unpopular toward the end of his decade-long term, particularly rising living costs.
The Conservative leader argues that Mr. Carney would continue what he refers to as “the lost Liberal decade,” insisting that only a new Conservative government can address crime, housing shortages, and other pressing issues Canadians prioritize over U.S. relations.
Canadian Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre waves goodbye to the crowd after addressing a rally in Oakville.
“You cannot endure another four years of this,” he stated over the weekend.
While Mr. Poilievre has criticized Mr. Trump, he maintained that ten years of ineffective Liberal governance left Canada exposed to a hostile United States.
A good pick
Final polling suggests a closely contested election, but positions Mr. Carney as the frontrunner.
Surveys consistently indicate that voters perceive the former central banker as the best candidate to tackle Mr. Trump.
Jeff Sims, a resident of Quebec near Ottawa, believes Carney possesses “the pedigree” needed for the prime minister role.
“With two central banks under his belt, I think that’s a solid choice,” the 46-year-old remarked.
At a Conservative rally over the weekend in the crucial city of Oakville, west of Toronto, Janice Wyner dismissed the idea that Carney signifies a break from Mr. Trudeau.
She stated, “Mr. Trudeau’s policies stunk, and it’s the same party.”
A supporter wears a hat reading ‘Canada is not for sale’ during a campaign rally for Pierre Poilievre.
“Canada is a mess. I’m 70 years old, and it’s not even a country I recognize anymore. I’m worried for my grandchildren,” she added.
Like many voters, Nadine Sokol, a 41-year-old living near Ottawa, identified “the threat from the U.S.” as her top concern.
Historic turnaround
If the Liberals prevail, it would represent one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history.
On January 6, the day Mr. Trudeau announced his resignation, the Conservatives led the Liberals by over 20 points in most polls, with Mr. Poilievre appearing to be on track to become Canada’s next prime minister.
However, Mr. Carney’s ascension and widespread apprehension regarding Mr. Trump have reshaped the race.
Public broadcaster CBC’s poll aggregator reported yesterday that the Liberals’ national support stands at 42.8%, compared to the Conservatives at 38.8%.
As with U.S. elections, national polling figures may not accurately forecast the results.
The performance of two smaller parties—the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) and the separatist Bloc Quebecois—will be closely monitored.
In previous elections, strong NDP performances in Ontario and British Columbia, along with a solid showing by the Bloc in Quebec, have limited Liberal seat totals, though polls suggest both smaller parties could face challenges this time.
Nearly 29 million of Canada’s estimated 41 million residents are eligible to vote, with a record 7.3 million casting advance ballots.
In the vast G7 nation spanning six time zones, polls open at 8:30 a.m. local time (11:30 a.m. Irish time) in the Atlantic province of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament, requiring 172 seats for a majority. The Liberals secured a majority in 2015 but have governed as a minority since 2019.
