Voters across the United States are handing down their assessment of Donald Trump’s second presidency in midterm elections that could upend his hold on Washington, with Democrats positioned to capture the House and mount a serious bid for the Senate.
If Republicans lose the House, Democrats would gain the leverage to slow Mr Trump’s legislative push and open wide-ranging investigations into his administration.
Losing the Senate would raise the stakes even higher, potentially weakening his ability to confirm Supreme Court nominees and senior government officials.
The contest has become a sweeping national referendum on Mr Trump, as the political weather has shifted sharply against Republicans amid frustration over rising living costs and the war against Iran.
All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot, along with gubernatorial races in 36 states.
Democrats need just three additional House seats and a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of both chambers from Republicans.
All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are at stake in the midterm elections
Mr Trump returned to office last year pledging to push prices down, but inflation, tariffs and fuel costs driven higher by the Middle East conflict have tightened household budgets.
The 80-year-old has seen his approval rating linger in the low 30s.
Economic discontent
Republicans argue that Mr Trump’s tax cuts and immigration crackdown will ultimately help Americans, and they have tried to paint Democratic contenders as left-wing radicals.
Yet in his final public campaign appearance, Mr Trump devoted little time to the economy, instead spending most of his remarks in a meandering discussion about his troubled renovation of Washington’s Reflecting Pool.
“This is the last day before the midterm elections, the most important midterm I believe in our lifetime,” he said, 26 minutes into the speech, before quickly pivoting back to the renovation.
A poster urging people to vote in Dallas
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer dismissed it as a “pathetic closing message.”
Even so, some Republican voters said they were unfazed.
“We’re going to win. As a matter of fact, we’ve probably already won,” Texas military veteran Yvonne Clouser told AFP.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage in the Senate, but the map has expanded into reliably conservative territory, including Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska.
Democrats, meanwhile, face pressure of their own in several tight races, including in Michigan, where a bitter internal party fight led congresswoman Haley Stevens to endorse Republican Mike Rogers over the Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed.
Decision Desk HQ’s final forecast forecasted 241 House seats for Democrats against 194 for Republicans, along with a slimmer 52-48 Democratic edge in the Senate.
Disputed results?
Surveys can miss late-moving support, and Republicans are banking on a strong turnout from their base on Election Day.
More than 57 million Americans had already cast ballots early, underscoring the intense engagement.
Spending has been enormous: the campaign has drawn more than $11 billion in political advertising, and billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk has funneled hundreds of millions of dollars into Republican political efforts.
Once polls begin closing, attention is expected to turn quickly to whether Republicans will accept the outcomes.
Mr Trump, who sought to reverse his 2020 election loss, has repeatedly claimed widespread voter fraud and accused Democrats — without evidence — of cheating.
More than 57 million Americans have already voted early
The Justice Department, led by a close Trump ally, has already filed suit that could have blocked certification of Alaska’s Senate race if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan were to lose narrowly, though a court rejected the effort on the eve of the election.
Separately, the Supreme Court turned away an emergency request to require California to set aside mail-in ballots from more than 20,000 people over claims they might not be American citizens.
Mr Trump, who plans to follow the midterm results from the White House, indicated he could resist Democrats even if they take Congress.
“I veto everything,” he told a podcast yesterday, though he added he might eventually cut deals with Democrats.
