Personal information
Name: Mr. Abdulsatar Muktar Abubakar
Title: Lecturer and Political analyst Date: 08/12/2024
Expanding Electoral Participation in Somalia: A Pathway to Inclusive Democracy through Increased Voter Representation”
Current Challenges of Indirect Elections in Somalia:
For nearly three decades, Somalia has grappled with the complexities of indirect electoral systems introduced after the collapse of the Mohamed Siyad Barre regime. Following the civil war, the Transitional National Government (TNG), established in 2000 at the Arta conference in Djibouti, marked a formal attempt to rebuild government system. Under this system, clan elders indirectly selected members of parliament, who then elected the president. While broader than earlier models, the TNG faced opposition due to the exclusion of key stakeholders, including Mogadishu’s factional leaders, leading to its limited functionality.
The 2004 Mbagathi conference in Kenya aimed to address these shortcomings by involving factional leaders, resulting in Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed’s election as president. However, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) under his leadership faced resistance, failing to achieve key objectives due to political fragmentation and limited inclusivity.
Subsequent progress was achieved during Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s presidency, beginning in 2009, which integrated the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) and laid the groundwork for reconciliation and governance. Notably, this period saw the adoption of Somalia’s Provisional Constitution in 2012 and the first Mogadishu-based presidential election since 1969. Despite these strides, the electoral process remained indirect, with 135 clan elders selecting parliament members.
In 2012, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s presidency introduced an expanded indirect electoral model involving 51 representatives from sub-clans to select parliamentary candidates. However, the lack of a direct election system left many Somalis feeling politically excluded. Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s presidency (2017–2022) sought to transition to a “one person, one vote” system, proposing proportional representation and political party-based elections. These reforms faced significant opposition, and the government reverted to indirect elections with increased participation, culminating in a 2021–2022 model involving 101 representatives per parliamentary seat.
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s re-election in 2022 continued the pattern of peaceful transfers of power, reflecting incremental progress in governance. However, Somalia’s indirect election system persists, posing challenges to inclusivity, democratic representation, and transitioning to direct electoral processes.
This background underscores the historical context and persistent barriers to achieving fully democratic elections in Somalia.
The Imperative of Transitioning Somalia towards Inclusive and Fair Elections: Challenges and Strategic Pathways
It is essential to acknowledge the necessity of gradually transitioning step by step towards the implementation of direct elections, where every representative holds their position through the votes of the citizens. Currently, Somalia’s governance system operates on a clan-based power-sharing model, with the four major clans each allocated equal representation (1.0), while the fifth clan is allotted half representation (0.5), forming the 4.5 power-sharing framework. Considering the indirect elections previously discussed and the progress achieved thus far, I believe it is imperative for the country to take a significant step by conducting another round of indirect elections with significant participation of the citizens. This will lay the foundation for transitioning to direct elections in the subsequent phase.
However, the reluctance of Somali clans and sub-clans to embrace reforms in parliamentary representation stems from deeply rooted concerns about the current 4.5 power-sharing formula. This framework allocates the 275 parliamentary seats among the five major Somali clans, with each sub-clan receiving a specific number of positions. Nevertheless, some sub-clans are excluded entirely from parliamentary representation. Furthermore, the 4.5 formula is widely regarded as inequitable, as some clans argue that their share of parliamentary seats does not reflect their actual population size, territorial presence, or the number of districts they inhabit. These clans believe that the seats they are entitled to have been unfairly distributed to others. Consequently, there is a pervasive fear among certain clans that they may lose the parliamentary positions they currently hold if any changes are made to the existing arrangement. Moreover, Somalia’s lack of a national census and the absence of scientifically validated population data exacerbate the situation. There is no definitive information on which regions have larger populations, leading to reliance on subjective estimates often based on the availability of resources in different areas. This uncertainty has hindered Somalia’s progress toward implementing direct elections, as clans are unwilling to risk losing parliamentary positions due to population-based redistributions. Therefore, given these challenges, Somalia remains unprepared for direct elections. Instead, a transitional approach is necessary, such as adopting an indirect election system involving thousands of representatives from the broader constituency. This step would allow for greater inclusivity and provide a foundation for moving toward free and fair direct elections in the country.
Expanding Clan Delegate Representation: A Path to Inclusive and Stable Elections in Somalia”
The purpose of this opinion article is to share my perspective on the elections scheduled to take place in Somalia in 2026. As we are aware, Somalia currently stands at a critical point and must prepare to take a significant step forward toward inclusive elections. In recent years, the country has conducted three consecutive indirect elections, all marked by limited public participation.
At this stage, Somalia is not yet ready to transition to a system of direct elections. This is because the political landscape and societal structures remain fragile, and direct elections could pose substantial risks to the delicate balance of clan representation. Specifically, such a system could result in some sub-clans losing parliamentary positions while others gain additional ones, thereby creating potential instability and undermining national unity.
To address this challenge, Somalia should retain a system that guarantees equitable representation for all sub-clans in the next government. However, this system must be reformed to promote broader participation. For instance, one viable approach would be to conduct another round of indirect elections while enabling each Somali clan to vote for their representatives. Consequently, this would enhance inclusivity by involving a larger segment of the population while preserving the existing framework of clan-based representation.
Building on this point, at this challenging juncture, where Somali society has yet to attain full political maturity, another significant and constructive step would be to expand the number of delegates representing each sub-clan with parliamentary positions. For example, increasing the representation to a minimum of 2,001 delegates would address several longstanding issues, including the pervasive challenge of corruption.
Firstly, with a larger number of representatives, the feasibility of bribing or unduly influencing individuals would decrease significantly due to the sheer scale of participation. Moreover, this expansion would foster broader community engagement and inclusivity, ensuring that the political process becomes more representative of Somali citizens.
Furthermore, this approach would enable approximately 550,275 Somali citizens to actively exercise their political rights. In turn, this would strengthen democratic principles and cultivate a culture of political accountability. By integrating these measures, Somalia would not only address critical governance challenges but also lay a solid foundation for greater public participation and trust in the political system.
Ultimately, by adopting these balanced approaches, Somalia can ensure stability, foster inclusivity, and take meaningful steps toward the long-term goal of comprehensive electoral reform. A transitional approach involving reforms to the indirect electoral system is necessary. Expanding clan delegate representation and increasing participation can enhance inclusivity and reduce corruption. By progressively broadening the electoral base—such as increasing the number of delegates per sub-clan—Somalia can cultivate a more participatory and accountable political culture, laying the foundation for a stable transition toward direct, fair, and democratic elections in the future.
Email: Abdisatar233@gmail.com
