Political plagiarism and the absence of innovation: Is Hassan Sheik pursuing the footsteps of his predecessor?

By aden On Dec 12, 2024

In Africa, power abuse and widespread corruption are the main governance barriers. Different factors contribute to these issues, both external and internal causes. I agree that internal problems and a lack of committed leadership and political elites are key factors.

Although Somalia was one of Africa’s first democracies and the first nation to have held a peaceful power transfer with a democratic process and transition, the country has seen two decades of dictatorship followed by civil wars and political instability. The Somali people had good faith and hope in Hassan Sheik’s second re-election, hoping to avoid the atrocities and instabilities committed by his predecessor, Mohamed Farmajo. I was among those people who thought that Hassan Sheik’s second term would be dedicated to leaving a legacy for his people.

Normally, democratically elected presidents invest their second term to create a legacy and a positive history for their time in office. It is challenging to figure out the type of legacy that this regime is going to make. Hassan and his team started to mimic the footsteps of his predecessor, let alone to create a legacy and come up with visionary and innovative programs that help address the nation’s state-building process and priorities.

Here are the similarities between the two presidents:

• Greediness to grab power: Both of them paralyzed state institutions to impose their individualistic agenda of abusing power. Their initial footsteps were to neutralize the parliament with bribes and political offers, as indicated by opposition members and other credible sources. Also, to achieve their personal demands, both of them were looking for a weaker prime minister who is loyal to them, not the nation.

Hassan Sheik has appointed an inexperienced and easily-influenced prime minister who will serve as a rubber stamp for Hassan’s greedy agenda. Why do they look for a naive prime minister? Somalia’s constitution gives executive powers to the prime minister; therefore, the two presidents were looking for someone that accepts their manipulation and directions.

The clan system serves as a checks-and-balances system to curb the powers of the top political positions like president, speaker of the parliament, prime minister, and the court; all of these people have different clan associations. The intention of the seperation is to restrict the power and mitigate the effects of a bad leader. Also, the two administrations appointed their cabinet from the parliament to escape accountability and defuse the checks-and-balance system. In a democratic society, parliament holds the executives accountable and serves as a watchdog for public expenditure.

• Zero-sum game: In realist politics, the zero-sum game is their favorite, unlike democratic nations where a corporation and consensus-based approach are always appreciated. Both of them were committed to defeating state-level authorities, further threatening the federalism and state-building process. For instance, their naked fight against Puntland and Jubaland is a parameter for their willingness to dominate and defeat all of the political stakeholders.

• Unilateral Electoral Commissions: Both presidents appealed for an unrealistic one-man-one-vote system and appointed a one-sided electoral commission. It was 12 April 2021 when the parliament extended the government mandate by two years, but fortunately, that daydream didn’t work. Today, the same movie is in play, but the actors are different.

The parliament has voted for a new electoral commission with the mission of holding state and national level elections, but Farmaajo’s commission had a limited scope of holding federal level elections instead of holding two elections simultaneously. Also, Farmaajo’s two-year plan seems quite realistic compared to this team’s plan. Both of them were struggling to control the process and get a perfect election model that favors their aspirations, a system that gives them room for intervention and manipulation. One of the critical steps that Hassan Sheik has underestimated is the trust-building process prior to elections.

• Use of state tools for a political agenda: The two leaders used the Somali national army to disturb states that didn’t obey their self-serving leadership. We have seen hundreds of government soldiers deployed in Jubaland, as Farmajo did in his term. The national civil aviation privileges were also weaponized to pressure some of the states. The courts, especially the Benadir regional court, were politicized, issuing an arrest warrant for Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland, just as Farmaajo did to Mokhtar Robow and Abdirashid Janan.

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• Labeling opposition members: In the initial period of this term, Hassan’s team engaged in widespread defamation against the opposition, just like Farmaajo’s propaganda and misinformation. Some of the social media giants and influencers were bribed to spread their messages.

• Single-sided decision-making process: A lack of consultations and a consensus-based approach are common to both presidents. Although some consultations were made in Mogadishu, the suggestions of such consultations were underestimated. For instance, consultations with the opposition leaders seemed a pretext for an individualistic agenda.

Here are some of the reservations for Hassan’s regime:

• Looting of public properties: Since Hassan’s team came to power, the issue of land has been trending, with thousands of Somalis evicted in the past two years to secure financial gains and state-owned properties traded in extreme transactional politics. I wonder what will happen when the entire public land is auctioned. Will Hassan’s team procure the national government positions and army ranks as the French King Louis XVI sold public offices to private individuals? This practice of stealing state property does not support the president’s agenda of staying in power.

• Changing the constitution without consensus: Hassan’s team dared to alter constitutional provisions that were restricting institutional powers and also determining the check-and-balance systems.

• Family politics: Hassan appointed his children and close family members to public office, like a foreign affairs advisor, chief of presidential security(close protection), and offered the chair of the national bureau of standards to his daughter-in-law. He has officially justified the inclusion of family in government business. Only dictators keep their families around politics. For instance, Museveni of Uganda has appointed public offices for his wife, son, and brother.

Vicious circle and lack of incrementalism

The lack of innovation and creativity hinders the state-building process and federalism. Governance and public policies are said to be incremental when new administrations add value to the already established structures and public policies. Our expectations for Hassan’s regime were very good; we thought he would be a peace-loving leader prioritizing negotiations and peaceful means of conflict resolution, but that dream didn’t happen, and we have become victims of political plagiarism and greediness for power.

Will this entrenched political system create a situation that demands change or a revolution just like what happened during the warlords? If the Somali elite and educated persons don’t intervene in the current political order, things might become messy, and violent extremist organizations might see it as an opportunity. Somalia needs a visionary leader with a thorough understanding of the state and nation-building process, a leader who can strengthen the institutional checks and balances, a leader who is not looking for financial gains, and a leader who has no interest in his re-election.

What is inevitable?

Considering all of the above conditions and experiences, it is obvious that the final outcome will be very similar to what happened during Farmaajo’s era, though the election model may be different. Hassan needs to accept the realities and hold participatory elections where the rules of the game do not favor individual interests. Political reconciliation and trust-building are important to harmonize the process and create a conducive environment for healthy elections.

Farah Bashir, Researcher and Analyst.