When Two Archrivals Shake Hands in Muscat
There are moments when diplomacy feels like theater and moments when it feels like a lifeline. Yesterday in Muscat, under the pale wash of Omani sunlight and the omnipresent scent of frankincense that drifts through the city’s narrow alleys, diplomats from two countries that have spent decades trading threats and sanctions met quietly in a hotel conference room. They did not sign treaties. They did not embrace. But they did, by several accounts, find a toehold of possibility — and someone, somewhere, reached out a hand.
“It was a good start,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said afterward, his voice measured but not triumphant. “We exchanged views.” Later, in an interview that began to ripple through regional media, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that despite the indirect nature of the meeting he had even found himself within arm’s length of the American delegation. “An opportunity arose to shake hands with the American delegation,” he said, and then added with characteristic firmness that Tehran’s missile program remained “never negotiable.”
The Facts on the Table
What transpired in Muscat — and what did not — matters. The talks were indirect and preliminary, led on the U.S. side by the White House’s Middle East envoy and a senior adviser close to the president. The Americans called the talks “very good” and promised another round soon. Washington simultaneously tightened economic pressure: an executive order instituting tariffs on nations still doing significant business with Iran took effect, and new sanctions targeted shipping companies and individual vessels suspected of ferrying Tehran’s oil.
Trade ties complicate this standoff. According to World Trade Organization figures for 2024, more than a quarter of Iran’s trade was with China — about $18 billion in imports and $14.5 billion in exports. The lifeblood of the Iranian economy still flows along maritime routes that the new sanctions aim to disrupt. “Targeting shipping makes sense on paper,” said Leila Haddad, an economist in Dubai who studies sanctions regimes. “But it also raises costs for everyone in the region and risks unintended consequences to global oil markets.”
What Each Side Says
From Tehran’s perspective, the nuclear file is a non-negotiable right. “Nuclear enrichment is an inalienable right and must continue,” Araghchi declared. Yet he also offered a sliver of reassurance: “We are ready to reach a reassuring agreement on enrichment,” he told Al Jazeera, arguing that the nuclear question ultimately could — and should — be settled at the negotiating table.
From Washington came the familiar double message of carrot and stick. Publicly, the White House touted progress and a willingness to sit down again. Privately, senior aides underscored that any deal could not be limited to centrifuges and fuel rods; ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and Israel’s security concerns remain on the minds of American policymakers — and were raised insistently by Israel, officials admitted.
The Shadow of Threats
Even as negotiators spoke quietly, the rhetoric on the ground grew louder. Araghchi issued a blunt warning: if the United States struck Iranian territory again, Tehran would respond by targeting American bases “in the region.” The remark was not a throwaway line; it was a strategic reminder that Iran measures its security across borders. “We will attack their bases in the region,” he said simply, invoking the specter of escalation that has loomed over the Gulf for years.
An Omani diplomat who asked not to be named told me: “Muscat’s role has always been to keep channels open. But openness does not mean weakness. These exchanges must be conducted carefully, or they will feed the reheated engines of war.”
Voices on the Street: Tehran, Muscat, Washington
In Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, shopkeepers greeted the news with a mixture of guarded hope and weary skepticism. “We have seen talks before, and then nothing changes,” said Hossein, a carpet merchant whose family has been trading for three generations. “If this means less pressure on ordinary people, that would be welcome. But we have learned to be cautious.”
Across the Gulf, a receptionist at the Muscat hotel where the meetings reportedly took place described a hush over the lobby. “There were men in suits, but also ordinary travelers who noticed nothing. The city kept its calm,” she said. “People hope for peace, but they also learn to keep expectations low.”
In Washington, a former State Department Iran hand, now a scholar, offered a paradox: “Diplomacy is at its most useful when it looks most improbable. These conversations are about creating a safety valve for crises, not an instant fix. If both sides can manage expectations, they can buy time — and time is often what stops bullets.”
Why This Matters Beyond the Headlines
Ask yourself: why do these preliminary, indirect talks capture global attention? On the surface, they are about one country’s nuclear program and another’s strategic patience. Beneath that, they are about a region that has been remade by war, sanctions, and displacement; about economies that can be throttled by the stroke of a pen; and about peoples who bear the brunt of decisions made in conference rooms far from their neighborhoods.
Iran’s domestic situation also colors its diplomacy. The country has endured a wave of protests and a harsh crackdown that began in late December, driven in part by economic grievances. When streets boil, governments sometimes harden their positions abroad to shore up legitimacy at home. That dynamic makes the willingness to sit down — even indirectly — all the more consequential.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Negotiations will continue, officials say; that much is clear. But whether they mature into a durable agreement depends on many moving pieces: the scope of talks, the interplay of regional actors like Israel and Saudi Arabia, the endurance of sanctions, and, crucially, the ability of both Tehran and Washington to frame a deal as politically viable at home.
For citizens across the region, the calculus is painfully practical. Will oil shipments continue without disruption? Will ordinary commerce rebound? Will young Iranians protesting in the streets find any relief? These are the questions that matter in bazaars and cafeterias, not just in diplomatic cables.
“If diplomacy delays a conflict, that is valuable in itself,” said Noor Al-Saleh, a human-rights advocate in Amman. “But we also need transparency and accountability in any arrangement. Peace that obscures repression is not peace at all.”
A Final Thought
Muscat’s meeting was small, ceremonially modest, yet heavy with consequence. It reminded us that even in an era of high-stakes brinkmanship, quiet conversations still have the power to reshape futures. Will we look back on this handshake as the first step toward cooling a decades-long confrontation, or as a brief lull before a return to business as usual? The answer depends on whether both sides — and the international community — choose patience over provocation.
What would you want negotiators to prioritize if you were a voice at the table: security guarantees, economic relief for civilians, or strict limits on weapons programs? The choices they make in the coming weeks will not only chart the course of U.S.-Iran relations but will ripple across a region waiting — always — for a breath of calmer air.
