Somalia playing with fire again (Similarities Between 1977 and 2021)
Before Somalia, we start with our neighbors;Look at the situation in Yemen where foreign powers are fighting, led by Yemeni citizens for whatever reasons.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are cooperating to fight Iran in Yemen. Destroying everything within a country that is not theirs and their children will not be harmed.
See what is happening in Libya, which we share a continent and have had relations with Somalis in the past. Can you count the number of countries involved in Libya?
Each plunders country’s natural resources at a time Libyans are dying of war and starvation.
In addition, what is happening in Syria are another case, including the begging of its citizens on the streets of Mogadishu, fleeing their country in a war in which they are not part of, a war between foreign powers, a war triggered by a self-appointed President.
Here in Somalia, in 1977 relations were cut off with the Soviet Union while the Soviet providing military equipment and military training to Somali army. As a result, within hours Russia moved to Ethiopia and supplied with military backup and equipment, immediately, Somalia was defeated in the war, despite the fact that the Somali army was initially in the upper hand in the war. Thus, the war won by Ethiopia with the support of the Soviet Union.
The failure of Somalia did not end in that defeat, it constantly demolished all the government infrastructure until finally the system collapsed. It was not easy to find a replacement for the SOVIET union and it had to be systematically changed for Somalis, so that their relationship is reliable.
These conversions included; Economy, Army, Vision, Socially and the system of government which had to be a Democrat in order to be fully supported by NATO nations. That transformations were difficult task, and it was what has led to the collapse of the military government.
The tragic legacy of the expulsion of Soviet Union in 1977 is well known to all intellectual people that it has devastating effect on us for 44 years. Now that we seem to have started a democratic system in which we can trust each other, with the support of the international community, the outgoing parliament and president took a similar step in 1977. They ignored the influence of the international community, which has spoken out loudly about how they will never support neither unilateral, parallel decision and extinction.
Somalia is now weaker and weaker than it was in 1977. It does not have the resources to rely on it, as the international community contributes 61% of Somalia’s budget. It does not control all regions of the country while many parts are controlled by Al-Shabaab.
Somaliland also claims to have seceded from the rest of Somalia. Three FMS have directly and indirectly rejected the decision of the parliament lower house to extend the term of the state institutions, and the international community has strongly opposed the Parliament lower house’s decision to extend the term.
Therefore, it is clear that the decision of the lower house MPs will not take effect. But the worry is; that the president is seeking support from China, Eritrea and Russia at a time he is rejecting the support and the advice of the UN, USA, UK, EU and AU.
The question is, what will happen if Russia and China accept the Farmajo’s invitation and intervene in Somalia? Meanwhile, the US may sanction against the speaker of parliament, the deputy chairs of the parliament who were responsible for the extension, and the outgoing president who pressured parliament to make that decision, it will further complicate the fragile situation in Somalia and particularly the election.
These governments have had no effect on the new Somalia, and no positive impact can be expected. the only thing that can be expected is for them to import weapons and troops to Somalia, this is not conducive to Somalia’s recovery, and it will be a battleground like in Syria and Libya.
Ahmed Ainab
axmedcaynab@gmail.com
