A flight operated by Azerbaijan Airlines that crashed yesterday in Kazakhstan, resulting in the deaths of 38 individuals, was reportedly downed by a Russian air defense system, according to four sources in Azerbaijan familiar with the investigation, as reported by Reuters.
The Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 went down near Aktau in Kazakhstan after diverting from a region in Russia where air defense systems have been deployed to counter Ukrainian drone strikes in recent months.
The Embraer passenger jet had strayed hundreds of miles from its planned route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny in Russia’s southern Chechnya region.
It crashed on the opposite side of the Caspian Sea following what Russia’s aviation watchdog indicated might have been an emergency potentially resulting from a bird strike.
The closest Russian airport along the plane’s flight path was closed that morning.
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One source familiar with the Azerbaijani investigation indicated to Reuters that preliminary findings suggested the plane was hit by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system, and its communications were disrupted by electronic warfare systems while approaching Grozny.
The source commented: “No one is asserting that this was intentional. However, considering the established facts, Baku anticipates the Russian side to acknowledge responsibility for downing the Azerbaijani aircraft.”
Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and victims of #AzerbaijanAirlines flight #J28243. We extend our wishes for a swift recovery to those injured in the crash and call for a thorough investigation.
— NATO Spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah (@NATOpress) December 26, 2024
Three additional sources confirmed the preliminary conclusion reached by the Azerbaijani investigation. The Russian Defence Ministry has not provided a response to requests for comment.
A US official informed Reuters that early indications point to the possibility that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have hit the plane. The official, who requested anonymity, added that if these indications are accurate, they would highlight Russian recklessness in the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Qanat Bozymbaev stated he could neither confirm nor deny the hypothesis that Russian air defenses may have downed the plane.
Regarding the potential for Russian air defenses targeting the aircraft, the Kazakh transport prosecutor for the area where the plane crashed mentioned that the investigation has not yet reached a definitive conclusion.
Russia has warned against building “hypotheses” regarding the crash of the Azerbaijani plane, which was set to land in Russia.
“It would be premature to draw any hypotheses before the investigation concludes,” Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov remarked during a press briefing.
Videos shared on social media and verified by Reuters depicted apparent shrapnel damage to the wreckage of the plane’s tail section.
Aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions informed airlines in an alert that footage of the wreckage and circumstances surrounding the airspace in southwest Russia suggest that the airliner could have been struck by anti-aircraft fire.
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev stated that the cause of the crash remains unknown and must be thoroughly investigated.
The Dagestan and Chechnya regions of Russia have seen Ukrainian weaponized military drones targeting them this month, with Russian air defenses being activated in response, according to Osprey.
Earlier that day, the Russian defense ministry reported downing 59 Ukrainian drones across various regions, as stated.
Some drones were reportedly intercepted in closed airspace over areas adjacent to Ukraine, including over the Sea of Azov.
Flight operations were temporarily suspended at Kazan Airport in Russia due to this activity.
Furthermore, publicly available ADS-B flight tracking data indicated that the aircraft experienced GPS jamming throughout its flight over southwest Russia, as per the alert.
In Brussels, NATO has called for a comprehensive investigation into the circumstances surrounding the crash.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and victims of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243,” NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah expressed on X.
“We wish those injured in the crash a speedy recovery and demand a full investigation.”
Kazakhstan’s senate chairman stated earlier that the cause of the plane crash remains unknown.
