Croatia’s Populist President Poised for Re-Election Success

Croatians are participating in a presidential runoff where the populist incumbent, Zoran Milanovic, appears poised to secure a second term, which would be a significant setback for the scandal-plagued ruling party.

Mr. Milanovic entered the race with increasing momentum against Dragan Primorac, who is backed by the center-right HDZ party currently in power in Croatia.

Although the president’s role is mostly ceremonial in Croatia, a decisive win for Mr. Milanovic would represent another blow to the HDZ and Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, Mr. Milanovic’s political rival, following a high-profile corruption scandal in November.

The outspoken incumbent, endorsed by the left-wing opposition, garnered over 49% of the votes in the first round of the election two weeks ago, narrowly missing an outright victory.

This vote occurs as the European Union member nation of 3.8 million grapples with the highest inflation rate in the eurozone, pervasive corruption, and a labor shortage.

As of 3:30 PM (Irish time), or two and a half hours before the polls were set to close, the electoral commission reported a turnout of nearly 35%, slightly lower than the turnout at the same time during the first round.

Outgoing President Zoran Milanovic casts his ballot in Zagreb, Croatia

‘Counterbalance’

Even though its powers are limited, many Croatians view the presidency as crucial for maintaining a political balance and preventing any single party from monopolizing power.

Since declaring independence in 1991, the former Yugoslav republic has been primarily governed by the HDZ.

According to Mia, a 35-year-old administrator from Zagreb who chose not to disclose her last name, the party “has too much control, and Plenkovic is transforming into an autocrat,” explaining her support for the incumbent.

Mr. Milanovic, who previously served as a left-wing prime minister, won the presidency in 2020 with the support of the main opposition Social Democrats (SDP) party.

A significant figure in Croatia’s political landscape for nearly two decades, he has increasingly adopted a provocative, populist tone during frequent critiques of EU and local officials.

“Milanovic is a sort of political omnivore,” said political analyst Zarko Puhovski, noting that the president is widely regarded as the “only, at least symbolic, counterbalance to the government and Plenkovic’s power.”

His candid style has elevated Mr. Milanovic’s popularity and attracted right-wing supporters.

On Sunday, following his vote in Zagreb and expressing confidence in his victory, Mr. Milanovic criticized Brussels as being “in many ways autocratic and non-representative,” governed by unelected officials.

The 58-year-old also frequently criticizes the HDZ for its ongoing corruption issues, referring to Plenkovic as “Brussels’ clerk.”

Croatian Democratic Union candidate Dragan Primorac casting his ballot

‘Russian player’

Mr. Primorac, a former education and science minister returning to the political arena after a 15-year hiatus, has campaigned as a unifying figure for Croatia.

At 59, he has emphasized patriotism and family values.

“My message remains the same—Croatia always comes first for me,” he stated to journalists after voting in Zagreb, mentioning he would be attending a mass afterward.

A voter, 62-year-old pensioner Djuro Knezicic, expressed his support for Mr. Primorac, citing his “good international ties and ability to foster improved international cooperation for Croatia.”

However, critics argue that Mr. Primorac lacks political charisma and has struggled to energize the HDZ base around him.

He has accused Mr. Milanovic of being a “pro-Russian puppet” who has compromised Croatia’s standing in NATO and the European Union.

While Mr. Milanovic condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he has also criticized the West’s military assistance to Ukraine.

Additionally, he has opposed a plan that would have allowed Croatian soldiers to train Ukrainian troops in Germany.

“The defense of democracy is not about labeling everyone who disagrees with you as a ‘Russian player’,” Mr. Milanovic remarked.

He added that such rhetoric is “in fact totalitarian.”

Meanwhile, younger Croatians have expressed frustration over the lack of engagement from political leaders on matters that concern them, such as housing or the standard of living for students.

“We mostly hear politicians discussing old, recycled issues,” said 20-year-old student Ivana Vuckovic. “What matters to young people doesn’t even cross their minds.”

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