An attack on tourists in the contested region of Kashmir has ignited a new crisis between the nuclear-armed neighbors, India and Pakistan.
Dr. Jivanta Schottli, an Assistant Professor specializing in Indian Politics and Foreign Policy at Dublin City University, characterized the current diplomatic and political climate as “very tense.”
She emphasized that the assault on civilians rendered this incident particularly shocking for the nation.
The incident occurred in the scenic valley near Pahalgam, situated in the Indian-administered region of Jammu and Kashmir, often referred to as “little Switzerland.”
Survivor accounts indicate that the attackers specifically targeted Hindu tourists.
Dr. Schottli noted that the attack disrupted a growing sense of “security in the area, where the resurgence of tourism had brought economic stability and optimism in recent years.”
Paramedics assist an injured tourist into a hospital in Anantnag, south of Srinagar, following the attack.
New Delhi has asserted that the militants had “cross-border” connections, with some reportedly being Pakistani nationals.
In response, Pakistan denied any association, claiming it had no knowledge of its citizens being involved in the attack.
India took swift action by revoking visas for Pakistani nationals, requiring their departure by the week’s end, expelling Pakistan’s military diplomats, and closing a major border crossing.
Key water treaty in jeopardy
India also declared the immediate suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.
This vital agreement, facilitated by the World Bank in the 1960s, has historically been one of the few enduring arrangements between the two countries.
“It is regarded as one of the few successful agreements between India and Pakistan that has persevered,” Dr. Schottli remarked.
The treaty dictates access to the Indus River and its tributaries, with India controlling the upstream flow, providing a geographical advantage.
The Indus River Valley in Ladakh, India
This decision has raised concerns in Pakistan, where agriculture relies heavily on water from the Indus basin, leading to fears that India might block the flow.
Dr. Schottli indicated that the suspension serves as both an ultimatum and a warning from India, though she added that its effects “won’t be immediate.”
India lacks the infrastructure for diverting the river’s flow due to treaty restrictions on dam construction on its side.
Nevertheless, she described the action as “highly emotive,” suggesting it is a way for the Indian government to demonstrate to its citizens that decisive retaliatory measures are being taken.
However, she also characterized it as largely “symbolic,” noting that the treaty had long been regarded as “sacred” and never had been “militarized” up to this point.
This represents a new, troubling low in bilateral ties, which Dr. Schottli declared “tragic.”
In an interview with the BBC, Pakistan’s defense minister stated that Islamabad would reach out to the World Bank, labeling India’s treaty suspension a “declaration of war.”
What is Kashmir?
The region of Kashmir has been disputed since the partition of India in 1947 and is divided by the Line of Control between India and Pakistan.
Both nations assert full claim over the Muslim-majority region.
The flags of Pakistan and India illustrate the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir.
The Indian-administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir previously enjoyed special autonomous status under Article 370 of the Constitution.
This provision offered the region certain privileges, including restrictions on land purchases by Indian nationals from other states, aimed at preserving the demographic balance and identity of the local population.
However, in 2019, the Indian government abrogated this article, revoking Jammu and Kashmir’s special status.
The move was met with “resentment,” according to Dr. Schottli, but she pointed out that “economic prosperity driven by tourism brought optimism” to the region in the aftermath.
Kashmir Resistance, a relatively unknown group claiming responsibility for the Pahalgam attack, has emerged since this constitutional change.
It is believed to be a splinter group of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, a think tank based in Delhi.
Will India respond militarily?
India has a track record of military reprisals following attacks in the region and has reiterated the promise of a “strong response.”
Dr. Schottli cited recent instances.
In 2016, following the deaths of 18 Indian soldiers at a military base in Kashmir, India conducted what it termed “cross-border surgical” strikes.
In 2019, a suicide bombing in Pulwama resulted in 40 Indian security personnel deaths, prompting India to launch airstrikes targeting a purported militant training facility in Balakot, Pakistan.
This time, however, it remains uncertain whether any military options are seriously under consideration.
Dr. Schottli indicated that Pakistan is likely prepared for escalation, suggesting that the “element of surprise is now absent.”
She also observed that India may seek intelligence support from the United States or Israel.
While New Delhi has not provided specific details about potential military actions, Dr. Schottli anticipates that economic and diplomatic isolation between the two nations will intensify, possibly leading to a “total breakdown” in relations.
