The European Commission is set to release its long-anticipated White Paper on Defence, a collection of ambitious proposals aimed at enhancing Europe’s security and defence capabilities due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and former US President Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw from NATO.
Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, has indicated that the EU might consider collective arms purchases, enabling individual member states to restock their inventories depleted by support for Ukraine.
This development comes as EU leaders have reacted cautiously to the outcome of yesterday’s phone call between Mr. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin concerning the cessation of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
During the conversation, Mr. Putin consented to Mr. Trump’s suggestion for a month-long suspension of strikes against energy infrastructure in Ukraine, a limited ceasefire that Ukraine promptly stated it would be open to examining.
European leaders have concluded that Russia poses a threat not only to Ukraine’s survival but also to the EU as a whole.
This conclusion stems from years of Moscow’s intimidation of neighboring nations—including the invasion of Ukraine—and its hybrid activities, cybersecurity threats, and even sabotage against certain member states.
Europe’s military assistance to Ukraine has both drained some of the EU’s military reserves and revealed areas where there is a significant over-reliance on the US, particularly in air defence, artillery shells, and long-range precision missiles.
The prospect of Mr. Trump returning to the White House has intensified concerns that Europe, which has depended on the US security umbrella for decades and reduced defence spending post-Cold War, is perilously vulnerable.
The upcoming White Paper will indicate that the possibility of an attack on an EU member state cannot be dismissed.
It will also propose the establishment of a central procurement agency that member states could rely on to replenish their weapons stockpiles.
Furthermore, the document will suggest methods to incentivize Europe’s defence industry to produce the necessary capabilities at scale and at reduced costs through joint procurement initiatives.
The Irish Government is believed to support these proposals; however, officials have indicated that Ireland has expressed concerns that any initiatives should be voluntary in nature.
