Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been accused of orchestrating a conspiracy to topple the government and jeopardize the nation’s 40-year democratic history following his electoral defeat in 2022, complicating his slim chances for a political resurgence.
The accusations arise from a two-year police investigation into the election-denying movement that resulted in riots by Bolsonaro supporters in the capital in early 2023, just a week after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva assumed office.
Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet has charged the far-right leader and his running mate, General Walter Braga Netto, with leading a “criminal organization” that aimed to establish a new order in Brazil, which allegedly included plans to poison President Lula.
A total of 34 individuals have been charged in connection with the plot, including several military officials, such as Bolsonaro’s former national security adviser, retired General Augusto Heleno, and former Navy Commander Almir Garnier Santos, as per the charge sheet.
Bolsonaro supporters stormed Brazil’s national Congress in January 2023.
The legal team for Mr. Bolsonaro asserted in a statement that he has never endorsed any efforts designed to dismantle Brazil’s democratic rule or the institutions that support it.
Analysts doubt that Mr. Bolsonaro will face arrest before his trial unless Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversees the case, determines he is a flight risk.
This case resembles the criminal charges leveled against US President Donald Trump, who faced accusations of attempting to overturn his own 2020 election loss. That case encountered various delays and was ultimately dismissed after Trump regained power in last November’s US election.
The accusations against Bolsonaro arise only months after Brazil’s federal police completed a two-year investigation into his role in the election-denying movement, culminating in riots by his supporters in the capital, Brasilia, in early 2023, shortly after President Lula took office.
Supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro clashed with police outside the Planalto palace in Brasilia.
During that period, many protesters acknowledged their intent to create chaos to legitimize what they deemed an imminent military coup. Late last year, five alleged conspirators were arrested for plotting to assassinate President Lula before he assumed office.
Prosecutors have indicated that the plot led by Bolsonaro included plans to poison Mr. Lula, a former union leader who has previously held the presidency for two terms.
Mr. Lula narrowly won against the right-wing candidate in the late 2022 presidential election.
“They aimed for total control over the three branches of government; they proposed a central office intended to organize the new order they wished to establish,” the charging document stated, referencing those allegedly involved in the coup plot.
Mr. Bolsonaro, a former army captain, has consistently denied any wrongdoing, claiming the allegations against him are part of a witch hunt orchestrated by his opponents.
In the meantime, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, criticized the charges on social media, labeling them an “unconstitutional and immoral mission” to cater to Justice Alexandre de Moraes’s desires and Lula’s interests.
Yesterday’s indictment represents the first instance in which Bolsonaro has been charged with a crime, despite having faced various legal issues regarding his conduct as president since losing his re-election bid.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva currently has his lowest-ever approval rating.
Two prior rulings from Brazil’s Federal Electoral Court have already prohibited him from running for president until 2030.
Mr. Bolsonaro’s legal team has two weeks to respond to the charges before the Supreme Court decides whether to accept them, potentially leading to a dramatic, televised trial.
Should he be convicted, Mr. Bolsonaro could face at least a dozen years in prison.
“There is a 99% chance that the Supreme Court will accept the charges,” stated Vera Chemim, a constitutional lawyer in Sao Paulo. “However, for a conviction, the Supreme Court requires robust evidence.”
General Braga Netto, Mr. Bolsonaro’s former running mate, was arrested two months ago for allegedly interfering with the investigations. In a statement released last night, his legal team deemed the charges a “fantasy” that would not tarnish his “unblemished history” accumulated over four decades in the Brazilian Army.
A lawyer representing former Navy chief Garnier Santos mentioned he will comment after thoroughly reviewing the charges, while General Heleno’s attorney did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
A conviction from the Supreme Court could pose a significant hurdle to Mr. Bolsonaro’s aspirations of running in the 2026 presidential election, potentially against Mr. Lula again.
A 2010 law, which Mr. Bolsonaro voted for during his time in Congress, prohibits anyone convicted by an appeals court from contesting elections.
Two sources close to the former president indicated that he holds little hope the courts will rule in his favor. Instead, his allies aim to rally political support to intensify pressure on the courts and politicians for a pathway to a comeback.
Yesterday, just hours before prosecutors unveiled the charges against him, Mr. Bolsonaro convened with opposition senators to discuss a bill aimed at shortening the duration politicians are barred from elections for committing irregularities.
While the bill’s chances of passing remain unclear, some conservatives feel emboldened by Lula’s declining popularity, as indicated by recent polls.
A survey released in February by Datafolha revealed that only 24% of Brazilians endorsed Mr. Lula’s government, marking his lowest rating across any of his three presidential terms.
