A Romanian hard-right NATO critic and leader of a centre-right opposition party are set to face off in a presidential run-off vote on 8 December, according to the results, marking an unexpected turn of events that could jeopardize Romania’s steadfast pro-Ukraine position.
With 99.9% of the votes tallied, hard-right candidate Calin Georgescu garnered 22.9%, while centre-right candidate Elena Lasconi trailed closely with 19.16%.
Ms. Lasconi outpaced leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who was regarded as the frontrunner in the first round, buoyed by substantial support from Romanian expatriates.
The president of Romania holds a semi-executive position, granting them control over defense expenditures—a challenging issue as Bucharest faces pressures to meet NATO spending targets amid Donald Trump’s anticipated second term while also addressing a significant fiscal deficit.
Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, the Social Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, speaks to the media after the initial exit poll results were released in Bucharest.
Political analyst Radu Magdin noted that the difference between Mr. Ciolacu’s previously low popularity and yesterday’s outcome is unprecedented since Romania transitioned from communism in 1989.
“In our 34 years of democracy, we’ve never witnessed such a drastic change compared to prior surveys,” Mr. Magdin stated.
The campaign centered heavily on the rising cost of living, with Romania having the highest proportion of individuals at risk of poverty within the EU.
Mr. Ciolacu attempted to win over voters with promises of generous spending and no tax increases, despite Romania carrying the European Union’s largest budget deficit at 8% of its economic forecast, while promising policy stability amidst an ongoing war in the region.
Formerly a key figure in the hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians party, Mr. Georgescu has criticized NATO’s ballistic missile defense system located in Deveselu, labeling it a “shame of diplomacy.”
He has expressed skepticism about the North Atlantic alliance’s commitment to defend its members against potential Russian aggression.
Centre-right contender Elena Lasconi is an advocate for increasing defense expenditures and supporting Ukraine.
“We are strong and brave; many of us participated in the vote, and even more will follow in the second round,” Mr. Georgescu stated while standing alone yesterday evening outside a residential building near Bucharest.
Ms. Lasconi, a former journalist, joined the Save Romania Union (USR) in 2018 and took over as party leader this year.
A two-term mayor, she champions the idea of enhancing defense spending and extending support to Ukraine.
On the brink of conflict
Romania shares a 650km border with Ukraine, and since the Russian invasion of Kyiv in 2022, it has facilitated the export of millions of tons of grain through its Black Sea port, Constanta, and has provided military assistance, including a donation of a Patriot air defense battery.
Border villages have experienced a series of drone incursions into national airspace, though no injuries have been reported.
One political commentator suggested that Russian interference to bolster Mr. Georgescu’s campaign could not be ruled out in the election.
“Given Georgescu’s perspective on Ukraine and the variance between opinion polls and the actual results, we cannot dismiss that possibility,” stated Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babes-Bolyai University.
Outgoing two-term president Klaus Iohannis, 65, solidified Romania’s strong pro-Western orientation but faced criticism for not adequately combating corruption.
Yesterday’s results stand as one of the most significant surprises in Romanian post-communist electoral history, with the leaders of the two largest parties—the leftist Social Democrats and the centre-right Liberals, currently in a coalition government—being eliminated in the first round.
