Campaigning is in its final stretch for the German snap election, with CDU leader and frontrunner for the next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, promising to restore Germany’s leadership role in Europe.
The electorate’s attention has been captured by the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, the stagnation of the economy, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and issues surrounding immigration.
This election occurs amid unprecedented strain in transatlantic relations, which appear to deteriorate further with each statement from US President Donald Trump.
At a gathering in Berlin last night, Merz reaffirmed his commitment to reinstate Germany’s position as a leader in Europe.
The outgoing government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Mr. Merz have mostly refrained from publicly criticizing Trump’s administration, though Berlin has condemned recent remarks from senior US officials regarding NATO and free speech in Europe.
Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
Speaking at a campaign rally in Darmstadt, Mr. Merz expressed his hope that America would not devolve into an authoritarian populist regime.
He stated that for the US to remain a democracy, it would require partners, as only autocratic regimes function independently.
The prospect of US tariffs is a significant worry for Germany, which has faced recession for the past two years and is experiencing job losses in its vital automotive sector.
Voters have identified the economy as their primary concern. Germany’s economic framework, previously reliant on inexpensive Russian gas and a receptive export market in China, has faced upheaval largely due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Germany poised for complex coalition-building, polls indicate.
The far-right AfD party, whose backing is primarily in former East Germany, aims to capitalize on increasing unemployment and growing fears over irregular immigration to boost their electoral prospects.
The party has doubled its support since the last election and is on track to secure second place.
Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats currently hold third place at 16%. The CDU is anticipated to receive 30% but will require at least one partner to create a coalition.
The party has excluded the possibility of allying with the AfD.
As all parties reject collaboration with the AfD, in light of the country’s history with Nazism, the latest polls indicate it will be challenging for any two of the other parties to secure a majority.
Consequently, frontrunner Mr. Merz will likely need to negotiate a three-way coalition with either the SPD and Greens or the SPD and FDP, as suggested by the polls, complicating negotiations further.
As a result, coalition discussions may be prolonged, leaving Mr. Scholz as a caretaker unable to make significant decisions regarding the future of Europe’s largest economy.
This scenario also implies that the next coalition may be just as fragmented and difficult to govern as the three-way alliance led by Mr. Scholz, which collapsed after just three years in power last November.
Mr. Scholz’s coalition was the first such arrangement at the national level in decades, yet the emergence of the AfD and the decline of traditional big-tent parties may make these coalitions more frequent.
Notably, the tone of the campaign has softened in the past week, signaling that parties are preparing for potential negotiations.
In a television debate, when asked if he would join passionate boater Mr. Scholz, Mr. Merz responded affirmatively: “Yes.”
Similarly, Mr. Scholz acknowledged he would board a plane with hobby pilot Mr. Merz, stating, “I assume he was given his pilot permit for a reason.”
This moment of camaraderie stood in contrast to the tensions that recently arose between the leaders, particularly concerning migration policy and Mr. Merz’s decision to pursue strict measures with the AfD’s backing.
Mr. Merz had previously promised not to rely on AfD lawmakers for parliamentary measures, although Mr. Scholz and others have expressed their mistrust following his change of stance.
5 things to look out for in the German elections this weekend
