A ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is scheduled to take effect later this morning, with a hostage release expected to follow a few hours later, potentially paving the way for an end to a 15-month conflict that has disrupted the Middle East.
This agreement came after months of intermittent negotiations facilitated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, coinciding with the upcoming inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on January 20.
The ceasefire, which is structured in three phases, will officially commence at 6:30 AM Irish time today.
Israel’s military has advised Gaza residents to refrain from approaching its troops or moving around the Palestinian territory until the ceasefire is in place, stating that “a statement and instructions will be issued on safe transit methods” once movement is permitted.
The upcoming hostage release includes 737 male, female, and teenage prisoners, some of whom are affiliated with militant groups and have been convicted of attacks that resulted in numerous Israeli casualties, along with hundreds of Palestinians from Gaza who have been detained since the conflict began.
Three female hostages are anticipated to be released this afternoon via the Red Cross, in exchange for 30 prisoners.
Trucks filled with humanitarian aid are stationed on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with Gaza.
Following the release of the hostages, lead US negotiator Brett McGurk indicated that the agreement also stipulates the release of four additional female hostages after seven days, with three more hostages to be freed every subsequent week.
President Joe Biden’s administration collaborated closely with Mr. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to finalize the deal.
As Mr. Trump’s inauguration neared, he reiterated his demand for a swift resolution, issuing warnings that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released.
What follows in post-war Gaza remains uncertain, particularly without a comprehensive plan addressing the future of the enclave, which will necessitate significant financial investment and years of reconstruction.
Despite the stated objective of the ceasefire to fully conclude the war, it is fragile and open to collapse.
Hamas, which has governed Gaza for nearly two decades, has endured significant losses, including its top leadership and thousands of fighters.
Israel has committed to preventing Hamas from re-establishing power and has cleared large sections of land within Gaza, a move believed to be aimed at creating a buffer zone allowing its military to operate freely against perceived threats.
Read more: Netanyahu: Israel retains ‘right to resume war’ if necessary
In Israel, the return of hostages may alleviate some public discontent directed at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition following the security breakdown on October 7, which resulted in the deadliest day in the nation’s history.
However, hardline members of his administration have already threatened to resign if military action against Hamas is not reinstated, placing Mr. Netanyahu in a precarious position between the US’s wish for an end to the conflict and his far-right political partners in Israel.
If hostilities resume, many hostages may be left in Gaza.
The war has reverberated throughout the region, igniting conflict with the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah and marking a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran for the first time.
More than a year post-conflict, the dynamics of the Middle East have shifted significantly.
Iran, which invested billions in establishing a network of militant allies surrounding Israel, has witnessed its “Axis of Resistance” crumble and was unable to inflict more than superficial damage on Israel during two major missile strikes.
Hezbollah, previously viewed as Israel’s greatest threat due to its extensive missile stockpile, has suffered significant losses, including the deaths of top leaders and destruction of most of its military capacity.
In the aftermath, the long-standing Assad regime in Syria has been destabilized, removing another key Iranian ally and leaving Israel’s military largely unchallenged in the region.
Nevertheless, diplomatically, Israel faces backlash and isolation due to the devastation and casualties in Gaza.
Mr. Netanyahu is currently faced with an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over allegations of war crimes, along with separate genocide accusations at the International Court of Justice.
Israel has reacted with indignation to these cases, denouncing the allegations as politically motivated and accusing South Africa—originator of the ICJ case—and the countries supporting it of antisemitism.
The conflict was ignited by Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths and over 250 hostages taken, according to Israeli estimates. Over 400 Israeli soldiers have since died in combat in Gaza.
Israel’s extensive campaign in Gaza has reportedly resulted in nearly 47,000 Palestinian deaths, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not differentiate between combatants and civilians, leaving the narrow coastal enclave in ruins.
Health officials claim that most casualties are civilians, while Israel contends that over a third are militants.
