Analysis: After a 15-month-long brutal conflict, a ceasefire agreement has been reached, yet numerous twists and uncertainties remain.
By Scott Lucas, University College Dublin
A ceasefire deal has been established following 15 months of intense conflict in Gaza, signaling an end to hostilities and facilitating the delivery of essential food and humanitarian aid to the civilian population.
Since the commencement of the Israel Defense Forces’ ground operation in Gaza in October 2023, triggered by the Hamas terror attack on October 7, over 46,000 Palestinians have reportedly lost their lives, including 17,492 children. Moreover, over 1.9 million of Gaza’s 2.2 million residents have been displaced, with significant destruction inflicted on infrastructure and housing.
What do we know about this ceasefire deal?
Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, potentially bringing a resolution to a 15-month war that has significantly disrupted the Middle East. The ceasefire is set to take effect on January 19, pic.twitter.com/q4ghZzJ4xu
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) January 15, 2025
At around 5 PM GMT, officials from Israel, Hamas, and Qatar announced that both sides had accepted a three-stage agreement. However, just an hour later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office indicated that the deal was not yet confirmed. The uncertainty is likely to persist until Israel’s cabinet votes on the accord.
As per the agreement, the initial six-week phase will see approximately 1,650 Palestinians released from Israeli prisons, while 33 out of around 95 hostages—some alive, others deceased—will be released by Hamas and other groups, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Israeli forces will start withdrawing from populated areas, allowing Palestinians to begin returning to their homes in northern Gaza. This phase will also witness a significant influx of humanitarian aid, with around 600 trucks entering daily.
In the subsequent phase, Hamas has committed to releasing all remaining living captives, primarily male soldiers, in exchange for the liberation of additional Palestinians and a “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza. The final phase involves the return of the bodies of remaining hostages in exchange for a three to five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza under international oversight.
At 5:02 PM GMT/UTC, former President Donald Trump confirmed, via his Truth Social site, that a deal had been finalized:
The Guardian
However, should Netanyahu—who has historically obstructed a conclusive agreement—relinquish his objections, he may encounter internal dissent from hard-right cabinet members. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has urged Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to collaborate with him in opposing the deal.
Thus, a significant caveat to any celebrations is that the agreement still awaits approval from Israel’s ministers.
We’ve been here before – what has changed?
The three-stage proposal was initially introduced last May, with discussions ongoing throughout the summer. In September, one of Israel’s lead negotiators, Mossad chief David Barnea, returned to Qatar, bolstered by hopes of a resolution. However, Netanyahu explicitly imposed the condition for Israeli troops to maintain their presence in two areas of Gaza: the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border and the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza.
The reasons behind Netanyahu’s potential acceptance of a ceasefire remain unclear. Some reports attribute this to discussions with Steve Witkoff, the envoy of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, in October, Trump effectively provided Netanyahu with a blank cheque, stating: “Bibi, do what you have to do.”
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From RTÉ News, Gazans exulting as news of the ceasefire spreads
The Israeli political climate is significantly influential. Netanyahu has faced consistent pressure from former members of his war cabinet, Benny Gantz and now-dismissed Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, along with opposition parties and various factions within Israeli society, particularly families of hostages.
Netanyahu has long resisted such pressure, preferring an “open-ended” conflict with the aim to “completely destroy” Hamas. However, he might now reason that agreeing to halt, with Hamas far from obliterated, does not symbolize a capitulation to Hamas, the Biden administration, or his domestic adversaries. He may frame the agreement as a pragmatic move, especially with a shift in U.S. leadership that could favor his stance.
Nevertheless, he risks that a ceasefire could trigger early elections as his government fragments, shifting attention back to his trial concerning bribery charges. Consequently, he will likely waver and hesitate until the last moment.
Israeli and Arab officials may be flattering Trump’s ego by portraying Witkoff’s intervention as pivotal in persuading the Prime Minister. There are no clear indications of the nature of the pressure or incentives that the envoy may have extended to Netanyahu.
One possibility is that the upcoming Trump administration has indicated readiness to endorse an expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian West Bank. This would reaffirm Trump’s initial stance during his first term, potentially allowing hard-right ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich to retract their objections to a ceasefire in exchange for assurance of Washington’s support.
People watch a live television broadcast of a press conference being conducted by Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani along a street in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza, on January 15, 2025. Photo: Getty Images
Can Netanyahu make this deal stick at home?
If Netanyahu ultimately approves the agreement, he may navigate immediate opposition from Ben Gvir and possibly others like Smotrich. Opposition leaders already support the deal, and much of the Israeli populace is fatigued by the military campaign, yearning for an end to the violence.
Although Netanyahu cannot declare “absolute victory” over Hamas, which has been his long-stated objective, he can highlight the dismantling of the organization’s leadership ranks. Since the latest round of conflict commenced in October 2023, Hamas has lost its military head, Yahya Sinwar; its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh; and Mohammad Deif, the architect of Hamas’ mass attacks inside Israel on October 7, 2023.
Crucially, Netanyahu can showcase the return of all hostages. He will likely anticipate a boost from not only the jubilation of families with living hostages but also from the families of the deceased, who may achieve a sense of closure.
How about the future of Hamas and Gaza?
Hamas will be required to rebuild, likely with Yahya Sinwar’s brother Mohammed assuming leadership. Its political and military foundations will need to re-establish themselves. However, the group has persisted within Gaza. Not only has it not been expelled, but at this juncture, no apparent alternative exists for its governance. Thus, it will need to be involved at some level in both maintaining the ceasefire and facilitating reconstruction efforts.
For Gaza’s civilians, they have long been the expendable pawns in this conflict. They constitute a significant majority of the over 46,000 fatalities—a conservative estimate. At least 1.9 million individuals, from a population of approximately 2.2 million, have been displaced and find themselves in severe humanitarian straits.
While the ceasefire would halt Israeli assaults and permit some individuals to return home, the situation is anticipated to remain precarious. The Netanyahu administration could still threaten to resume airstrikes, if not ground operations, or obstruct the flow of humanitarian aid.
Hamas, which had not garnered widespread support prior to October 7 due to economic and social issues, appears to have sacrificed the majority of Gaza’s civilians for its notable moment on October 7, 2023. Its long-term prospects for those who have survived remain uncertain.
Donald Trump’s about to take power – did that change things?
Whether Trump’s envoy Witkoff played a direct role in advancing the ceasefire, the onset of the Trump 2.0 era may have galvanized all parties involved in the discussions to push for a final settlement.
Given Trump’s unpredictable and often disjointed approach, coupled with his tendency to sideline and disregard senior advisors, future U.S. policy after January 20 remains uncertain. While Netanyahu might gain from Trump’s blank cheque, Hamas and other factions in Gaza, along with Arab states, may find themselves navigating a landscape of unpredictability.
Meanwhile, as the spotlight focused on political maneuverings and personalities, the harsh reality of the past 15 months continued unabated. In the two days leading up to the signing of the agreement, at least 123 individuals lost their lives, with several hundred more injured due to Israeli assaults across Gaza.
Will the killing finally cease? And for how long?
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Scott Lucas is a Professor of International Politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. This article was originally published by The Conversation.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ.
