Here it is – finally. Judgment day in American politics. The day ‘We the People’ voice their opinions, irrevocably steering their nation onto a new trajectory, all while much of the globe is swept along in its wake.
This nation, birthed from revolution, stands once more at a pivotal moment – one that will be affirmed through the people’s will in a democratic election.
The incredible power of this, often overlooked in our own democracy, sharply contrasts not only with the dictators and autocrats wielding power around the world today, but also with the historical dynamics between rulers and the ruled for the majority of human history.
Is it taken for granted here? Will it be exercised recklessly, or with careful thought and consideration?
This will transform perceptions – a breaking of the largest glass ceiling in this superpower. That transformation holds significance not just for women and men within this country, but across the globe as well.
Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could also mark a revolutionary shift, but one likely to accompany the traditional upheavals associated with revolutions.
His agenda hints at, yet does not elaborate on, sweeping changes that could take place swiftly: endings to wars within days post-election, imposing substantial tariffs on all US imports, large-scale deportations, and halting inflation.
Undoubtedly, there exists a desire for substantial change in this country, with a significant portion of the electorate – perhaps 47% to 48% – viewing Trump as the catalyst for that change.
This seems to be the crux of his appeal, even despite, or perhaps because of, his unconventional style in politics, communication, and public conduct.
But now it’s time for the American public to decide and make a choice. More specifically, the 60% of voters who have yet to cast their ballots.
A remarkable 78.6 million people had voted by yesterday evening through early and mail-in voting in states that permit it. That’s a 39% turnout prior to election day.
Read more: Latest US Election stories Live: Updates as they happen
Most political activity over the last two weeks has been focused not on persuading individuals to support one candidate over the other, but rather on encouraging them to vote.
By the end of September, opinions were mostly settled. The later stages of the campaign have centered around maximizing voter turnout.
Polling indicates a remarkably close race, if not an outright tie. However, polling has increasingly become a less precise indicator of voting behavior in recent decades for various reasons.
In the last two presidential elections, polls underestimated Trump’s support by approximately four percentage points, leading to a surprise victory in 2016, and an unexpectedly narrow loss in 2020.
If the same pattern persists this time, then Trump appears poised to win.
Or, the methodology may have corrected past errors and is now accurately reflecting Trump’s support level.
Yet, it could also be underestimating the backing Harris receives. Anecdotal “evidence” suggests that some women may express views publicly, including to pollsters, that do not accurately represent their choices in the privacy of the voting booth.
From this perspective, there could be a “hidden boost” for Harris waiting to materialize when the votes are tallied, fueled by female voters who are put off by Trump’s personal behavior and are against the Dobbs decision in the US Supreme Court, and the implications stemming from it.
Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan
Alternatively, perhaps the polls are perfectly accurate – they genuinely could be heading for a tie. It’s unlikely, but not impossible.
There is even a process for resolving a scenario where both candidates end up with 269 votes each in the Electoral College – the new Congress would decide, with the House of Representatives selecting the President and the Senate choosing the Vice-President.
This might be more straightforward than an exceptionally close election where one candidate wins by an exceedingly slim margin.
If Trump loses, the likelihood of legal challenges is exceptionally high. The chances of civil unrest or agitation are already significant enough that security agencies are alerting about the potential repercussions for those contemplating it (the severe penalties handed down to some of the January 6 rioters serve as a cautionary example, as does the Philadelphia DA’s “F- around and find out” warning issued yesterday).
The outcome will be what it will be. In just another day, we will have a clearer picture. Or at least some concrete data to inform our opinions. For now, all of this remains mere speculation and conjecture.
Global interest in the outcome is immense. The decision made today by the American populace will considerably influence the future handling of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The economic ramifications of the election, both in the short and long term, could be substantial, particularly regarding long-term impacts on energy, trade, and industrial policies.
Globalization could halt, if not reverse direction. Strategies for combating climate change may shift dramatically.
Individual nations and multilateral institutions will need to reassess their policies in light of this election result: the only uncertainty is how significant the resulting changes will be.
No wonder there is such a palpable sense of anxiety surrounding this political decision currently being made by the American people.
We will all feel the effects of the outcome, to varying degrees. But affected, we will be.
