Benjamin Netanyahu has previously referred to Donald Trump as the best ally Israel has ever had in the White House.
This week, the Israeli prime minister was among the first global leaders to congratulate him following his election victory, calling it “history’s greatest comeback”.
Mr. Netanyahu’s excitement is to be expected.
During his initial term in office, Mr. Trump established himself as one of Israel’s most steadfast supporters.
The Republican relocated the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, becoming the first US president to acknowledge the holy city as the nation’s capital.
Benjamin Netanyahu reveals the sign for ‘Trump Heights’ in a border area with Syria in 2019
During his presidency, the US formally recognized the Golan Heights—viewed as part of Syria under international law—as Israeli sovereign land.
Mr. Trump also made history as the first sitting American president to pray at the Western Wall, Judaism’s holiest site.
Additionally, in 2018, the former president withdrew US funding from UNRWA, the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees—well before the UN agency encountered the controversy it has faced following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks.
Mr. Trump has consistently labeled himself as the most pro-Israel US president to date, even claiming that no other president has done more for Israel.
Even Israel’s ultranationalists seem to concur.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the country’s far-right national security minister, expressed his enthusiasm on Twitter when it appeared likely that Mr. Trump would triumph over Kamala Harris in the recent US election.
It’s easy to understand why.
During Trump’s presidency, the US State Department declared it would no longer view Israeli settlements in the Occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem as “inconsistent with international law.”
These settlements are generally deemed illegal for a reason—they exist in territory that is internationally recognized as belonging to the Palestinians.
That Trump-era policy was later overturned by the Joe Biden administration, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if it were reinstated during Mr. Trump’s second term.
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At its essence, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a contemporary territorial dispute—two nations, one land.
Israel has significantly increased the establishment of settlements in the West Bank in recent years, with the pace accelerating since October 7.
Some estimates suggest that around 40% of Palestinian territory in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is now made up of illegal Israeli settlements.
This is a considerable and evident obstacle to achieving a two-state solution, as much of what ought to be Palestinian territory has been encroached upon.
This is precisely why Hamas cited the illegal Israeli settlements as a rationale for the October 7, 2023 attacks. Ultimately, Israel’s actions contribute to the chain of events that have led to the full-scale war with Hamas since then.
The most pressing question is how Mr. Trump’s unwavering support for Israel will influence the conflict with Hamas and whether he can truly bring about an end to the war in Gaza, as he regularly promised during his campaign.
Mr. Trump reportedly told Mr. Netanyahu in July that he aimed to conclude the war by the time he returns to office.
However, it’s unclear what “concluding” the war would mean from Mr. Trump’s perspective.
For starters, Israel has floated the idea of maintaining a permanent presence in Gaza even after hostilities cease.
This is completely unacceptable to Hamas, which has vowed to continue fighting and retain the Israeli hostages unless Mr. Netanyahu’s government consents to a full withdrawal and a lasting ceasefire.
At their core, all attempts to secure a ceasefire and end the conflict have faltered because Israel and Hamas have fundamentally contrasting objectives in the war:
Hamas aims to survive the war to continue its struggle after a ceasefire, while Israel seeks to “totally obliterate” Hamas and is willing only to agree to a temporary ceasefire to regroup and pursue that goal.
Bridging that divide appears unlikely, no matter how adamantly Mr. Trump demands it.
Moreover, while he is staunchly pro-Israel, he is equally pro-Netanyahu.
The incoming US president is likely to recognize that, in many respects, Mr. Netanyahu’s remaining in power depends on the continuation of the war on all fronts.
Israelis stroll past a billboard congratulating US president-elect Donald Trump in Jerusalem
Mr. Netanyahu seems to believe that the so-called forever wars could play a crucial role in his re-election, with speculation that the Israeli leader might call a snap election sometime next year, which would be much sooner than anticipated.
If anyone understands political survival and the necessary steps to achieve it, it is the 45th and soon-to-be 47th president of the United States.
In that light, it is difficult to envision Mr. Trump exerting significant pressure on his Israeli ally.
Instead, history suggests that Mr. Netanyahu will be afforded additional leeway in the coming months, at least until Mr. Trump runs out of patience.
The same applies to the individual expected to become the new US Secretary of State, Richard Grenell.
Mr. Grenell, who held various roles during the previous administration, indicated in a recent interview that Mr. Trump’s objective is “peace”.
Donald Trump has consistently labeled himself as the most pro-Israel US president to date
However, it seems that peace is to be achieved on Israel’s terms.
“You can’t discuss a two-state solution when you have Hamas, a terrorist organization, leading one side. It’s unacceptable,” he remarked.
“You can’t discuss a two-state solution when one side is literally holding people hostage.”
Read more about the conflict in the Middle East
Mr. Grenell has referenced the Iranian funding of Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, and Yemen’s Houthi militia to support his assertions.
“What Donald Trump wants to see is peace. And, to have peace, you need to go to the source of what’s occurring, and understand how the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah—where they’re obtaining their funding,” he stated.
This appears to indicate that a second Trump administration will again implement its “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran—a strategy that included stringent sanctions on the country’s oil sector during Mr. Trump’s first term.
However, it also suggests that the Trump administration will have little patience for Hamas or its objectives, making the prospect of a ceasefire that genuinely ends the violence seem even more elusive.
