This week, rebel forces opposing President Bashar al-Assad have initiated their largest offensive in years, seizing control of a majority of Aleppo, Syria’s second city, as reported by a monitoring group.
According to the war monitor, government forces put up minimal resistance, and the army acknowledged that rebels had infiltrated “large parts” of the city.
What prompted the Syrian rebels and their Turkish-backed allies to attack after a period of relative tranquility, and what implications does this have?
Why is the timing significant?
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in the UK, reported that the rebels had taken over numerous towns and villages in northern Syria and “gained control of most of” Aleppo.
This violence has resulted in at least 311 fatalities, predominantly among combatants on both sides, including at least 28 civilians, according to the Observatory, which relies on a network of informants within Syria.
Dareen Khalifa, a researcher at the International Crisis Group, stated that the rebels had been preparing for this offensive for months.
“They’ve framed it as a defensive move against regime escalation,” Ms. Khalifa noted, as increased Syrian government and Russian strikes on the region preceded the attack.
A billboard featuring Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad alongside a national flag has been damaged by anti-government fighters in Aleppo.
However, HTS and its allies are “also considering the wider regional and geostrategic shift,” she added.
The rebels, collaborating in a joint operational command, launched their offensive on the same day a truce between Hezbollah and Israel came into effect in neighboring Lebanon.
Throughout more than 13 months of conflict, Israel has also escalated attacks on Iranian-backed factions in Syria, including Hezbollah, which has long supported Damascus in the civil war.
Alongside Iran, Russia is a close ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, with Moscow intervening in the civil war in 2015, shifting the momentum in favor of Damascus.
“They believe this is an opportune moment when the Iranians are weakened, the regime is under pressure, and Turkey feels more confident against Russia,” Ms. Khalifa commented.
Turkey has positioned itself as a potential mediator in the Ukraine conflict and serves as a pivotal trade and finance hub for Western-sanctioned Moscow.
Which major powers are involved?
Key powers supporting opposing sides in the conflict have so far refrained from making any escalatory statements.
On Friday, the Kremlin expressed hope that Syria would swiftly “restore order” in Aleppo, while Tehran has labeled the offensive as part of an American-Israeli scheme to destabilize the region.
Turkey has called for an end to “attacks” on the rebel stronghold of Idlib in Syria, where Syrian and Russian air forces have commenced strikes.
“If the (rebels) can maintain their gains in the upcoming days, it will be a significant test of whether Turkey will fully engage,” Ms. Khalifa remarked.
The large-scale offensive occurs as efforts towards a rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara have stalled in recent years, despite Moscow and Tehran advocating for reconciliation.
An anti-government fighter fires a weapon in Syria’s northern city of Aleppo.
Turkish forces and Turkey-backed rebel groups control extensive areas of northern Syria.
Initially aiming to oust Assad following the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shifted his stance as government forces regained territory.
In a statement posted on X, Caroline Rose from the Washington-based New Lines Institute suggested that the Aleppo offensive appears to be “a strategy to compel the regime to negotiate from a position of weakness.”
What is the situation for the government?
This week, the Syrian government faced its most significant territorial loss in years.
“Regime lines have collapsed at an astonishing rate, surprising everyone,” Ms. Khalifa noted.
The rebels also severed access to the Damascus-Aleppo M5 highway, in addition to securing control over the crucial M5-M4 junction that connects Syria’s second city to the regime’s stronghold in Latakia on the Mediterranean coast.
Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, reported that the rebels advanced into Aleppo “with little substantial pushback from regime forces.”
“It’s unusual to witness regime forces suffer such significant setbacks despite Russian air support and early indications of HTS planning this operation,” Abdel Rahman commented.
Damascus has primarily relied on Russian airpower and ground support from Hezbollah to reclaim territories lost to rebels early in the conflict.
However, Iran-backed Hezbollah has incurred heavy losses in its struggle with Israel.
Meanwhile, “Russia’s involvement has dwindled considerably, and quick reaction air strikes are of limited effectiveness,” stated Aaron Stein, president of the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.
The swift advances of the rebels serve as “a reminder of the regime’s weakness and possibly indicate their complacency over the past couple of years as battles subsided,” he said.
