The looming threat of election disruption is unsettling American voters this Halloween season, with growing concerns that the 2024 US presidential race might be determined not by ballots cast on election day but through a chaotic court battle in the aftermath.
We’ve seen this scenario before.
In 2000, the Supreme Court ultimately ruled that George Bush triumphed over Al Gore after a contentious manual recount in Florida.
The key distinction then was that Mr. Gore conceded, upholding the cherished American tradition of a tranquil transition of power.
“If you count the legal votes,” Mr. Trump asserted in November 2020, “I easily win.”
Currently, there is a genuine possibility that a significant number of Americans may not accept the outcome of this election either.
After declaring the election to be “stolen” by Joe Biden and the Democrats, Mr. Trump’s supporters infamously stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an attempt to halt the vote certification.
Election officials assess paper ballots in Florida during the 2000 US Election
Simultaneously, a wave of lawsuits inundated local courts nationwide, claiming pervasive election fraud ranging from ballot miscounting to tampered voting machines.
Most of those cases have since been dismissed or withdrawn. Fox News notably reached a settlement of nearly $800 million in a defamation lawsuit brought against it by Dominion Voting Systems over false fraud allegations.
Georgia has filed a criminal case against Donald Trump and his associates for allegedly attempting to illegally overturn the election, and that case remains pending.
Nevertheless, these developments have done little to quell the doubts of MAGA Republicans, who continue to insist that the 2020 election was rigged or stolen.
Since 2023, a total of 164 lawsuits have been initiated by both Democrats and Republicans, many focused on modifying the election process to impose additional checks before certification—a move likely to delay the announcement of election results.
This week, however, rulings from two different judges in Georgia invalidated new measures that would have permitted “reasonable inquiry” into election results in one instance and mandated hand-counting of ballots in another.
Many Donald Trump supporters believe the 2020 US Election was rigged or stolen
In his decision regarding a request from county election board members to prevent certification if they suspected error or fraud, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney wrote: “This election season is fraught; memories of January 6 have not faded, regardless of one’s perspective on that day’s significance. Anything that introduces uncertainty and disorder into the electoral process is detrimental to the public.”
Beyond this week’s verdicts, many more pending cases are unlikely to be resolved before election day.
The lawsuits raise important questions about who has the right to vote, how they can cast their votes, and how the results will be determined.
The barrage of court filings has certainly contributed to erosion of trust in the integrity of this election.
However, this is part of a broader trend.
Over recent election cycles, confidence in the American electoral process has significantly declined.
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A recent survey conducted by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion indicated that nearly two-thirds of American voters are concerned about voter fraud. While a majority of these concerns come from Republicans, a substantial number of Democrats share these worries as well.
In addition to apprehensions regarding the conduct of elections—given that many US states have their own distinct rules and systems for casting and counting ballots—there are also worries about foreign interference, disinformation campaigns, and AI-generated deepfakes.
According to the 2024 Election Misinformation Monitoring Center, established earlier this year by the media monitoring firm NewsGuard, hundreds of websites and social media accounts are continually disseminating false or misleading claims.
Notably, foreign interference operations have been discovered masquerading as local American news outlets online.
American politics remains deeply divided
“NewsGuard uncovered a Russian disinformation initiative utilizing AI to falsely claim that Kamala Harris was involved in a hit-and-run accident injuring a young woman,” said Gordon Crovitz, CEO of NewsGuard, in an interview with RTÉ News. “Additionally, an Iranian disinformation effort falsely alleged that Donald Trump declared 9/11 an inside job by the US government.”
“These false claims have circulated widely online during a time when individuals lack clarity regarding the sources of their news on social media platforms like Facebook, YouTube, X, and TikTok,” he added.
Disinformation campaigns often exploit the existing divisions in American politics, as noted by Claire Wardle, an Associate Professor in the Department of Communication at Cornell University.
“The United States is already so divided that people have entrenched themselves in their respective camps; there’s no need to persuade anyone of anything,” she stated.
Concerns regarding voter suppression may pose an even greater threat.
“If anything is likely to happen in the coming weeks, it will be efforts to discourage people from voting, such as spreading fears about potential violence at polling places,” she indicated.
This could prove crucial in an election poised to be decided by just a few precincts across the nation.
If a clear winner does not emerge on election night, it could not only lead to a flurry of legal challenges but also fuel conspiracy theories.
Ultimately, the narrative from that point onward will be controlled by whoever can shape the discourse, according to Claire Wardle.
“For me, everything hinges on November 6,” she concluded.
