Media Forecasts Indicate Liberal Victory in Canadian Election
Canada’s ruling Liberal Party has maintained its power following the election, though it remains uncertain whether they will achieve a majority government, according to predictions from CTV News and CBC.
Prime Minister Mark Carney sought a strong mandate to navigate the challenges posed by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats. However, CTV and CBC reported that the Liberals have not yet secured the 172 electoral districts, referred to as seats, required for a majority government.
The final results could be delayed, particularly depending on the western province of British Columbia, where polls closed last.
The Liberals were leading or had been elected in 133 electoral districts, followed by the Conservatives with 93.
The right-of-center Conservatives, who called for change after over nine years of Liberal leadership, demonstrated unexpected resilience.
The House comprises 343 seats, and if Mr. Carney only secures a minority, he will need to negotiate with other parties to maintain power.
Minority governments in Canada typically last no longer than two-and-a-half years.
This result signified a remarkable resurgence for the Liberals, who trailed by 20 points in the polls back in January, just before former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation and Mr. Trump began issuing tariff and annexation threats.
The last party to win four consecutive elections in Canada was the Liberals in 2004.
Pierre Poilievre attempted to keep the election focused on domestic issues.
This outcome represents a significant setback for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who centered his campaign on domestic concerns and the need to repair what the Liberals had “broken”.
The Liberal Party had been trailing the Conservatives until Mr. Trump’s critiques of Canada ignited a wave of nationalism, reversing poll predictions.
Mr. Trump injected himself into the election early in the day, posting on social media that Canada would face “ZERO TARIFFS” if it “becomes the cherished 51st state”.
In response to criticism during the campaign for his occasionally subdued critiques of Mr. Trump, Mr. Poilievre fired back firmly.
“President Trump, stay out of our election,” he posted on X.
“Canada will always be proud, sovereign, and independent, and we will NEVER be the 51st state,” he added.
Mr. Carney also chimed in, stating on X: “This is Canada, and we decide what happens here.”
The 60-year-old has never held elected office and just replaced Mr. Trudeau as prime minister last month.
A former hockey player, Mr. Carney enjoyed a career in investment banking before serving as the central bank governor in both Canada and Britain.
“Today, we leave everything on this ice,” he shared on social media before voting near his Ottawa home.
Mr. Carney based his campaign on an anti-Trump message, arguing that his global financial experience positions him well to guide Canada through a trade war.
He repeatedly emphasized that the United States was “trying to break us, so they can own us”.
Canadians queued outside schools, community centers, and other venues to cast their ballots.
Mr. Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, aimed to keep the discussion centered on domestic issues that had tarnished Mr. Trudeau’s popularity toward the end of his decade in office.
The Conservative leader contended that Mr. Carney would perpetuate “the lost Liberal decade” and only the Conservatives would tackle skyrocketing costs, housing shortages, and other pressing issues Canadians prioritize over Trump-related concerns.
With pleasant spring weather, Canadians lined up outside schools, community centers, and other venues in Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto to vote.
Montreal resident Hamza Fahri, who intended to vote after work, called the election “unique”.
“I wanted to vote for change in Canada. I wanted the Liberals to go, but in the end, I’ll vote for Carney because he is a strong, serious man that the country needs to face Trump,” said the 28-year-old engineer to AFP.
In Toronto, Conservative supporter Chad McCann expressed that the Liberals “hadn’t really done much for us” during their decade in power.
“I think for a strong change, there is no better time than today,” the 37-year-old told AFP.
First-time voter Hilary Recker prioritized getting to the polls.
“I’m just excited to vote,” said the 19-year-old Toronto resident.
“Hopefully it doesn’t end up like the (United) States, and I don’t get disappointed,” she added.
Nearly 29 million of Canada’s 41 million citizens are eligible to vote.
On January 6, the day Mr. Trudeau announced his resignation, the Conservatives led the Liberals by more than 20 points in most polls.
However, the change in leadership from Mr. Trudeau to Mr. Carney, alongside nationwide discomfort about Mr. Trump, altered the dynamics of the race.
The outcomes for two smaller parties—the left-wing New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois—may prove crucial, as strong performances by both historically have limited the number of seats the Liberals could secure.
Nearly 29 million of Canada’s 41 million people are eligible to vote in the massive G7 nation.
A record 7.3 million citizens cast advanced ballots.
Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament, meaning 172 seats are necessary for a majority.
The Liberals attained a majority in 2015 but have governed with a minority since 2019.