Restrictions on the Military Serve as a Dealbreaker in Ukraine Truce Negotiations
Ukraine has indicated to the US that any restrictions on the size of its armed forces or on its military’s overall preparedness would be a red line, according to a senior Ukrainian official, as Donald Trump attempts to negotiate a resolution to the conflict with Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed a desire for limitations on the size of Ukraine’s military.
Additionally, he has insisted that Ukraine must abandon its aspirations to join NATO and that Russia should maintain control over four Ukrainian regions that it claims as its own.
“This is a principled stance from Ukraine – no one, especially not the aggressor country Russia, can dictate to Ukraine the configuration of its armed forces,” stated senior official Pavlo Palisa in a Reuters interview.
Pavlo Palisa mentioned that Ukraine is adhering to an agreement not to target Russian energy facilities.
A well-prepared military would serve as Ukraine’s best defense against renewed Russian attacks, should a ceasefire or peace agreement be established, he noted.
“I can speculate on the motivations of the Russian Federation – perhaps they aim to prepare for easier future engagements, but that won’t be the case. Our priority is to learn from past experiences well,” Mr. Palisa added.
During an initial meeting with US officials in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine consented to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire proposed by the US, after which Washington resumed military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after a brief hiatus.
However, Russia stated that significant conditions needed to be resolved before a ceasefire could be achieved.
Both parties subsequently agreed to suspend attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, but have since accused one another of violating this agreement.
Ukraine indicated it might engage in a new round of negotiations with US officials next week.
Ukrainian officials have reported sharing evidence of Russian strikes on energy facilities with the United States, with Mr. Palisa asserting that Ukraine is complying with the agreement.
Mr. Trump’s administration is advocating for a swift conclusion to the large-scale war initiated by Russia in February 2022, though a lasting peace deal seems far from being realized.
Hostilities continue, and Ukraine’s chief general has stated that a new Russian offensive is already underway in the country’s northeast, where Russia claims to have captured another village in the Ukrainian region of Sumy.
These Russian assertions came after Ukrainian officials reported that 12 individuals were injured in a drone strike on the central industrial city of Nikopol.
In a social media statement, Russia’s defense ministry declared that its forces had “liberated” the village of Zhuravka, just beyond the Ukrainian border.
These claimed advances in Sumy illustrate the broader challenges faced by the Ukrainian army, which has been gradually losing ground in Russia’s Kursk region since launching a surprising incursion last August.
The aftermath of a Russian drone assault on Dnipro.
Ukraine’s highest-ranking military official, Oleksandr Syrsky, warned earlier this week that Russian forces have initiated an offensive in Sumy—where they are advancing since displacing Ukrainian troops from most of the western Kursk region—and the adjacent Kharkiv region.
The governor of the central Dnipropetrovsk area reported that Russia had launched a drone attack on Nikopol, leaving a 16-year-old boy in serious condition.
This strike followed overnight Russian attacks on Kyiv and the southern Black Sea region of Mykolaiv that left around a dozen people injured.
AFP reporters in the capital heard air raid sirens and explosions resonating through the city during the assault. The air force stated that Russia had employed 145 drones, including the Iranian-designed Shahed, with 85 being intercepted by air defense systems.
Officials released images of rescue personnel in Mykolaiv assisting the injured from the attack and sifting through rubble.
Aside from the issues surrounding its armed forces, Ukraine has reiterated that it will never recognize Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian land, but has publicly accepted that regaining certain territories by military means may not be feasible.
Russian forces are attempting to encircle the strategically significant city of Pokrovsk.
Besides ensuring a robust Ukrainian military, Mr. Palisa underscored the necessity of security guarantees from Ukraine’s US and European partners to deter future Russian maneuvers.
The United States has yet to commit to providing security guarantees; however, some European nations have discussed forming a so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ that could deploy troops to strengthen deterrence.
Mr. Palisa anticipates that Russia will escalate its attacks later this month and in May.
The official believes that Russia’s offensive may focus on the eastern city of Pokrovsk, but could also extend to the eastern fronts near Kupiansk and Lyman, as well as the southeastern fronts of Zaporizhzhia and Novopavlivka.
“In my opinion, the absolute priority now will be the Pokrovsk direction,” he stated.
Russian forces are working to encircle the strategically critical city of Pokrovsk to enhance their goal of achieving total control of Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
Russia currently holds approximately one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.
Meanwhile, Ukraine faces uncertainty regarding the future of US military aid.
A lack of new assistance may ultimately affect the supply of missiles for its Patriot air defense systems, in addition to its offensive HIMARS and ATACMS systems.
Earlier this month, Mr. Palisa stated that Ukraine had not yet discussed additional aid with the US, but the topic could be broached as ceasefire negotiations progress.
Ukraine is channeling resources into developing its own air defenses, he mentioned, adding that several nations have consented to transfer licenses and technical documents for the production of “certain equipment” domestically.
“The process is progressing, and quite dynamically,” he concluded.