The announcement of ‘the pause’ occurred right in the midst of Tánaiste Simon Harris’ live interview with RTÉ’s Six One News yesterday.
He was expected to share details about his earlier meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who had invited him to Washington DC for a swift discussion.
However, that meeting was abruptly postponed in the morning and then rescheduled for the afternoon.
So, Mr. Harris was back live on the Nine News, providing details of what had just unfolded during that meeting.
Tánaiste Simon Harris on the Nine News last night
Mr. Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were in the Oval Office with the president when the announcement of the pause was made, triggering a stock market surge, a dip in bond yields, and a rise in oil prices as recession fears eased slightly.
When it comes to reasons to postpone a meeting with the Tánaiste, this one is quite favorable.
In the afternoon, Mr. Lutnick compensated for it with a meeting that Mr. Harris described as “timely, valuable, and substantive.” He relayed the details to EU Commission Vice President and Trade Negotiator Maroš Šefčovič back in Brussels, particularly focusing on discussions regarding the pharmaceutical sector.
That pause couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment.
It’s been a week filled with ups and downs since Donald Trump introduced his “reciprocal tariffs” plan in the Rose Garden of the White House, causing turmoil across equity markets, bond markets, customs brokers, and shipping agents.
The issue is that every rollercoaster ride has at least one pause—a necessary moment of relief before plunging back into a terrifying sequence of climbs, drops, and twists. This wild ride is far from finished, just as a heads up.
But let’s take a moment to do what we should during such a pause: savor it. Experience the relief, take a breath, appreciate that we’re still standing. Then, prepare for what’s next.
Or, if you happen to be a trade negotiator, seize the moment with your proposals and see if the Americans take the bait.
Ninety days doesn’t seem like a significant timeframe to reshape the world trade order. Attempting to navigate trade negotiations with 75 countries, as mentioned by the Treasury Secretary, will stretch the US civil service to its limits, and there’s already talk of outsourcing some negotiations to law firms.
Mr. Lutnick later told CNBC he anticipates a busy schedule negotiating deals alongside Mr. Bessent, and that the 90-day window will indeed present significant challenges.
Moreover, it’s not just the number of countries involved in reaching a deal; it’s also the complexity and scale of negotiations with larger players.
The two giants of America’s international trade, the European Union and China, pose considerably larger challenges due to their sheer size. The EU-US economic relationship is the largest on the globe and is highly valuable for both parties.
The EU-US economic relationship is the largest on the globe
There exists a significant trade surplus for the EU in goods, while the US enjoys a substantial surplus in services (including digital services). This discrepancy explains why the EU argues that the trade gap is smaller than what the US claims, and they’ve proposed to narrow it by purchasing US energy instead of Russian energy.
President Trump expressed a similar sentiment at the beginning of the week, suggesting that a significant portion of the deal is already in play.
Regarding the more intricate issues that govern market access, considerable groundwork was laid during the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiations over a decade ago, and trade experts on both sides of the Atlantic continue to refine their strategies just in case.
Therefore, they aren’t starting from scratch. With the right political will, substantial progress can be made in three months. The pivotal question is whether this will be enough to maintain EU red lines while allowing Donald Trump to declare victory. Only time will tell.
Keep in mind that trade agreements are fundamentally political bargains. While many technocrats are involved, ultimately, significant decisions must be made by politicians who need to feel comfortable with the outcome.
The relationship between the US and China, on the other hand, is distinctly adversarial. Both sides can inflict considerable damage on one another. The substantial reliance of US industry on Chinese manufacturing represents a strategic vulnerability for the United States—one it seeks to address, but that could backfire if the dispute escalates significantly.
The Chinese, conversely, depend on the US market to sustain their economy.
The Americans believe that since they are the buyers and the Chinese the sellers, they hold the upper hand in these negotiations.
The rapid escalation of tariffs and counter-tariffs further distances a negotiated resolution.
Preventing a detrimental trade war will require considerable effort and resources from both sides.
Additionally, lurking in the background is the potential for an actual conflict over Taiwan if China feels severely humiliated or threatened.
25% tariffs on imported automobiles and components remain in effect
The implications of this situation appear to lead towards a significant reshaping of the global trading system, with the risk of damage being substantially higher, given the deeper ideological and political divides between the two sides.
But that’s assuming everything progresses smoothly. Don’t hold your breath—this is merely a pause in the rollercoaster ride we’re on, remember?
The tariffs are still in operation. A general 10% tariff is levied on all goods imported to the US—except for China, where tariffs are currently at 125%.
Stock markets may rebound, but remember that dead cats can bounce too.
Sector-specific tariffs are still enforced—the steel and aluminum tariffs reintroduced by the US are persistent, as are the 25% tariffs on imported automobiles and components.
Moreover, the president is still indicating plans for a “major tariff” on the pharmaceutical sector, separate from the “reciprocal tariff.”
Treasury Secretary Bessent was clear that the tariff levels announced last week serve as maximums (assuming countries do not retaliate), and the 10% “floor” could be open for negotiation.
In his view, making a bold move in the world trade arena has been beneficial because many countries indicate their readiness to negotiate quickly to enhance trade for the US within their markets to retain access to the US market.
“They’re all kissing my ass,” was Donald Trump’s more colorful interpretation of the current state of international trade diplomacy.
Even if tariffs were to stabilize at the new 10% rate long-term, the Tánaiste’s stance is quite clear.
“10% tariffs are still unfavorable; tariffs are damaging, so we need to proceed cautiously in relation to this,” he stated.
Therefore, we are not out of the woods yet. There will be plenty of tough negotiations and deal-making ahead.
However, for the first time, we begin to glimpse the path forward—unless another unforeseen shift occurs, pitching us back into a runaway rollercoaster.
Read more: Trump announces 90-day pause, increases China tariff Trump buckles in face of bond market pressure
