Demonstrators have assembled in Istanbul for a significant rally backing the city’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, who was apprehended by authorities on March 19 on accusations of corruption and terrorism support, both of which he refutes.
This rally, coordinated by Turkey’s primary opposition party, the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), comes after 10 days of protests across Istanbul and other Turkish cities.
Imamoglu’s detention occurred just four days prior to his anticipated announcement as the CHP’s candidate for Turkey’s upcoming presidential election in 2028.
His supporters believe the arrest was politically charged, aimed at hindering his opposition against Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s enduring autocratic president.
Imamoglu asserted that his arrest demonstrated Turkey’s shift towards being “purely authoritarian,” with Erdogan “selecting who can pose a challenge to him.”
Throughout the week, police in Istanbul enforced a crackdown on demonstrators who failed to disperse following nightly addresses by opposition figures at rallies, although these protests have remained largely peaceful.
Demonstrators are advocating for Imamoglu’s release and the conduction of early elections.
Since the protests ignited on March 20, nearly 1,900 opposition supporters have been arrested in various cities throughout Turkey, according to the interior ministry, which also reported 150 injuries among police officers during skirmishes.
Ekrem Imamoglu (R) campaigning in the Istanbul mayoral election in 2019
The police response has been severe, employing pepper spray and water cannons against protesters, with some officers captured on video kicking demonstrators.
Erdogan has denounced the past nine days of protests—the largest in Istanbul in over a decade—as “evil” and has accused the CHP of instigating a “violent movement.”
The Turkish government has rejected claims that Imamoglu’s arrest was politically motivated, asserting that the judiciary operates independently.
As protests persist, there is no indication that Turkey’s president intends to relent and concede to the demonstrators’ demands.
He retains popularity among his AK party supporters, which is the largest in Turkey, having thrived for over two decades on a combination of conservatism, nationalism, and Islamism.
Imamoglu has successfully reached voters beyond his party’s secular urban base, according to Asli Aydintasbas, a former journalist for CNN Turk and now a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.
“He has garnered support from Kurds and conservatives alike, even attracting significant segments away from Erdogan’s base. This potential for broad appeal makes him a substantial threat to President Erdogan, more so than any other opposition leader,” Ms. Aydintasbas shared with RTÉ News.
This broad appeal has been reflected in the nightly protests over the past week in Istanbul.
The demonstrators comprise a varied mix of nationalists, leftists, and centrists, including many young people who are dissatisfied with their country’s trajectory, democratic decline, and sluggish economic conditions.
The annual inflation rate in the country was reported at 39% in February.
Proving Imamoglu’s popularity, last Sunday, 13 million people voted for him to be the CHP’s presidential candidate—an incredible display of support considering that Turkey is not currently in an election cycle.
However, maintaining daily protest momentum could prove challenging.
“I’m uncertain whether the CHP can sustain this level of enthusiasm for two or three years. This is a marathon for the opposition, not a sprint,” Ms. Aydintasbas remarked.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaking in Ankara on 26 March (Pic: Turkish Presidency/Murat Kula/Handout)
The protests may encounter a more immediate obstacle.
This Wednesday, Erdogan announced an additional three days of public holidays to observe Eid, the Muslim festival that marks the conclusion of Ramadan.
Typically, the observance lasts three days, but with this year’s extra public holidays, and Eid situated across two weekends, public sector employees will enjoy a total of nine consecutive days off work.
Whether this was a calculated decision by state authorities or not, the extended Eid holiday will likely result in fewer individuals in the major cities next week, as they return to their hometowns, potentially diminishing the impact of the protests.
Nonetheless, protest movements are inherently unpredictable, and there remains a possibility that they could grow in size.
In addition to organizing today’s large rally in Istanbul, the CHP has urged Turks to boycott companies supporting Erdogan.
A protester waves a Turkish flag in front of riot police during a rally in Istanbul on 24 March
Strong backing for the protesters’ demands from the United States or the European Union appears unlikely as well.
Neither Washington nor Brussels has forcefully condemned the arrest of the prominent opposition leader or the aggressive police tactics used to disperse the demonstrators, despite some European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, expressing concern.
Last week, US President Donald Trump referred to Erdogan as “a good leader.”
During the last significant opposition protests in Istanbul in 2013, EU officials criticized the excessive force employed by police against demonstrators.
However, the current security dynamics in Europe lead the bloc to adopt a more diplomatic approach towards Turkey.
Turkey possesses the second-largest military of any NATO member after the US and has a substantial defense industry—both valuable assets for Europe as it seeks to strengthen its own defense capabilities and establish a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
A Turkish component as part of a future monitoring force could also be more acceptable to Russia, which has thus far opposed the inclusion of European peacekeepers in Ukraine.
“Turkey is significant in terms of countering Russia in the Caucasus and in the Black Sea region of Eastern Europe,” Ms. Aydintasbas noted.
Turkish riot police officers use pepper spray to disperse protesters in Istanbul on 24 March
Additionally, the Turkish media landscape, largely pro-government and critical of the protests, plays a crucial role.
Authorities have worked to stifle independent media coverage of the protests, fining independent Turkish broadcasters and detaining at least 13 journalists, most of whom have since been released.
One pro-opposition television channel received a ten-day broadcast ban from the country’s media regulatory authority.
Over his 22 years in power, first as prime minister and subsequently as president from 2014 onward, Erdogan has implemented stringent measures to suppress media freedoms, rendering Turkey one of the most perilous countries for journalists globally.
According to Reporters Without Borders, a media watchdog, Turkey ranks 158th out of 180 nations on its press freedom index, with an estimated 90% of the media landscape under state control.
Such outlets propagate the government’s narrative regarding the protests.
With limited access to traditional media, the protesters heavily rely on social media and grassroots channels to disseminate information.
However, social media in Turkey is not a bastion of freedom.
Since protests began, Turkish authorities have requested the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to suspend over 700 accounts associated with opposition figures, which X declined to comply with.
Politico reported earlier this week that some X accounts belonging to student activists were specifically blocked in Turkey.
On Thursday, BBC News correspondent Mark Lowen was deported by Turkish authorities after being detained by police for 17 hours.
According to a statement from the BBC, authorities claimed he posed “a threat to public order.”
In reality, Mr. Lowen was conducting interviews with protestors as part of his coverage.
One external factor that could sway Erdogan to moderate his crackdown on the protests is the market reaction.
“This is the key element to monitor,” remarked Mr. Cagaptay, noting that the markets are “the single dynamic over which Erdogan has no control.”
During the initial days of the protests, Turkish stocks experienced their worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis, signaling investor concern over the country’s stability.
Authorities will likely aim to quell the protests swiftly before markets perceive a risk of prolonged economic instability, which could compel the government to liquidate more of its foreign currency reserves.
Organizers of today’s anticipated mass rally in Istanbul will be hoping for a substantial turnout to sustain the momentum of the current movement.
Yet, if attendance falls short of expectations, the protests could diminish during the holiday season amid extensive criticism from state-controlled media and Erdogan himself.
