Beginning in mid-October, Ukrainian authorities alerted the global community about the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia.
On October 18, South Korea raised its concerns as well.
However, it was only this past Monday that NATO officially acknowledged, after a thorough analysis of intelligence reports, the presence of these troops in Russia.
Both Ukrainian and US intelligence services have indicated that North Korea has sent roughly 10,000 troops to eastern Russia in recent weeks.
Ukraine’s military maintains a strategic position in Kursk due to its unexpected advance into the area back in July, suggesting that Moscow intends to utilize these new forces to push the Ukrainians out.
According to Mr. Blinken, Russia plans to engage the North Korean troops in combat in the upcoming days.
If this claim is validated, it would represent the first instance in Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine where a foreign nation will act as a combatant.
This situation also involves South Korea, increasing tensions on the Korean peninsula and broadening the geopolitical implications of the war to East Asia.
Yesterday, the Financial Times reported that Seoul is contemplating providing arms directly to Ukraine, a shift from its previous stance of offering only non-lethal assistance.
This week, South Korea dispatched its foreign and defense ministers to Washington DC for briefings with their American counterparts.
The South Korean intelligence agency also briefed NATO officials, as well as the intelligence agencies of Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, regarding what they know about the covert troop deployments, highlighting growing concerns among NATO’s partners in the broader Indo-Pacific region.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun spoke at The Pentagon on Wednesday.
Mark Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister who took over as NATO Secretary General last month, characterized the presence of North Korean troops in Russia as a “significant escalation” and “a dangerous expansion of Russia’s war.”
Mr. Rutte noted that Pyongyang has already provided Russia with millions of rounds of ammunition and ballistic missiles.
The gradual delivery of these military supplies from North Korea to Russia has been ongoing since 2022, formalized in June when Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a strategic partnership agreement in Pyongyang.
This agreement ensures that Russia and North Korea will assist each other if either is attacked by another nation.
“It’s quite beneficial for both parties,” stated Mykhailo Samus, a Ukrainian defense analyst, in conversation with RTÉ News.
“For North Korea, this is an opportunity to acquire substantial Russian investments, and we can include Chinese and Russian investments for the North Korean defense industry due to the production of ammunition.
“Now the North Koreans have a chance to gain practical experience in modern warfare,” said Mr. Samus, who is also the director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, a think tank in Kyiv.
South Korea’s defense minister remarked to reporters at the Pentagon on Wednesday that North Korea’s price for sending troops to Russia is likely access to Russian nuclear technology, a prospect that is alarming for the South Korean government due to the frequency of ballistic missile tests conducted by its northern neighbor.
In exchange, Russia receives ballistic missiles, millions of rounds of ammunition, and now, troops as well.
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un celebrate their countries’ strategic partnership agreement in Pyongyang last June.
The reported number of North Korean troops currently deployed to Russia is relatively small, making it difficult to determine their significant impact on the ongoing battle in Kursk.
However, it’s unclear if this is a lone deployment from Pyongyang or merely the first of several.
Russia certainly needs to consistently replenish its ranks with new recruits.
The British Ministry of Defence estimates that Russia is suffering around 30,000 casualties each month during the war.
That casualty figure may have reached as high as 40,000 when combining both killed and wounded combatants in October, according to Estonia’s military intelligence agency.
While the Kremlin appears reluctant to issue another large-scale mobilization order, as it did in September 2022, a continuous influx of North Korean troops could help address recruitment gaps in the Russian army.
According to Astrid Chevreuil, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, Pyongyang’s engagement could “aid in maintaining a quantitative advantage on the ground for Moscow.”
Though the North Korean troop deployment is currently symbolic, Ms. Chevreuil believes it also aligns with Moscow’s communication strategy.
“Russia could project an image of having allies ready to contribute personnel on the ground, while Ukraine only receives material assistance,” she added.
Most of the North Korean troops sent to Russia are believed to be light infantry, which means they will likely be assigned to battle as small units using light arms and mortars.
Moreover, the North Koreans lack experience in drone warfare, and in a conflict where drones play a pivotal role, this may lead to a brutal learning experience for these new combatants.
If the North Korean forces are only engaged in combat on Russian soil in Kursk, then a reaction from the US and NATO is unlikely, Mr. Samus commented.
However, uncertainty remains about NATO’s response should they be deployed to fight within Ukrainian territory.
“To be frank, NATO is absolutely unprepared for this scenario,” believes Mr. Samus, who adds that while the alliance can voice criticism regarding such developments, “it cannot provide any decisive, practical solutions.”
There may also be a role for China to play in this situation.
The New York Times reported on Thursday that US officials have already engaged in discussions with senior Chinese diplomats to leverage their influence on Pyongyang to halt further troop deployments.
A Pentagon spokesperson indicated during the week that there would be no restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US-supplied weaponry against North Korean troops acting as co-belligerents in the conflict.
Ukraine has historically urged the US and its European NATO partners to remove restrictions on the use of long-range weapons against Russian military assets within Russian territory. It would seem unusual for them to be limited to using Western-supplied arms against North Korean units while excluding Russian targets.
The deployment of North Korean troops represents a concerning escalation, illustrating Russia’s readiness to adopt new strategies to prolong the conflict.
If these troops are intended for action in Ukraine, any future response from the US and, more broadly, NATO could hinge on the outcome of Tuesday’s US presidential election.
