Georgians head to the polls today for a parliamentary election that is considered the most significant since the nation regained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
The election presents a clear choice for the 3.7 million citizens: either continue with the current populist government that has ties to Russia or support an opposition coalition of four liberal parties aiming to strengthen Georgia’s bid for European Union membership.
According to polls, which have often been inaccurate in Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party is estimated to receive 43%, significantly outpacing the main opposition coalition, Unity-UNM, which stands at 16%.
However, when combined, the support for Unity-UNM along with the other three pro-EU parties reaches approximately 44%, which may be enough to form a coalition for a total of 76 seats in Georgia’s 150-seat parliament.
Georgia’s ‘broadly friendly’ opposition
“This is not a unified opposition. Rather, it is a broadly friendly opposition that has collectively decided to pursue a westward trajectory,” stated Hans Gutbrod, a policy research professor at Tbilisi’s Ilia State University, during an interview with RTÉ News.
“They have made it clear that Europe’s future and democracy are on the ballot,” he noted, emphasizing that the election is “on a knife-edge.”
The GD party has been in power since 2012, following the pro-Western administration of the United National Movement (UNM), a party established by former president Mikheil Saakashvili.
Under GD’s governance, the nation has sought to balance its EU membership ambitions while also adopting increasingly illiberal policies regarding rule-of-law and social issues.
Recently, the ruling party passed legislation that restricts LGBTQ rights, including prohibiting same-sex marriage and adoption by same-sex couples.
Critics accuse the government of tightening its grip over regulatory institutions, such as the national bank, and enforcing a traditionalist agenda within state-managed cultural organizations.
Supporters of Georgian Dream listen to a speech by billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili
Despite these controversies, GD has largely maintained positive relations with the EU, and the country was granted EU candidate status last December.
This was before the Tbilisi government attempted to implement a contentious “foreign agent” law last May, which mandates organizations receiving over 20% of their funding from abroad to register as working for the “interests of a foreign power.”
The proposed law triggered mass protests from pro-EU supporters, leading the EU to suspend Georgia’s candidate status in July due to concerns over democratic backsliding.
Surveys indicate that between 80%-90% of Georgians support EU membership.
In this electoral campaign, billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of GD who briefly served as prime minister from 2012 to 2013, has emerged from his reclusive tendencies to speak at campaign events, often from behind bulletproof barriers.
Since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Mr. Ivanishvili has vaguely referenced an unspecified threat to Georgia posed by what he calls a “Global War Party” in the West, suggesting they are trying to drag Georgia into a conflict with Russia.
Framing the election around the specter of war
The GD party has positioned the election as a means to prevent war, asserting that voting for the ruling party is the safest choice to avoid conflict with Russia.
This kind of fear tactic resonates with voters worried about a repeat of Russia’s brief 2008 invasion of Georgia.
That conflict resulted in the effective loss of South Ossetia, a region in north-central Georgia where Russian troops remain stationed.
During a rally in Tbilisi on Wednesday evening, Mr. Ivanishvili claimed that if GD wins, it would move to ban UNM, citing its previous governance record. This is a claim GD had first made in August.
The ruling party is no stranger to targeting political adversaries.
Mr. Saakashvili, the former pro-Western president, was convicted of abuse of power in 2021, with supporters contending that the charges were politically motivated.
He is currently serving a six-year sentence and remains critically ill in a hospital under prison supervision.
Thus, UNM, campaigning as the Unity-UNM bloc in this election, is fighting for its very existence.
While speaking at a rally in the western city of Kutaisi, Unity-UNM’s leader, Tina Bokuchava, emphasized that this election represents Georgia’s last chance to “return to the path of European development” and to “save Georgia from international isolation,” according to the country’s Inter Press News agency.
This promise resonates strongly with many younger, urban Georgians who envision their future within the EU.
Moreover, the opposition parties have also concentrated on practical concerns such as increasing pension payments to connect with older voters who are generally supportive of the EU.
A Georgian Dream election billboard in the capital Tbilisi
Today’s elections in Georgia come just a week after another significant vote in the region.
Last Sunday, Moldovans approved an amendment to their constitution that steers the country toward EU membership, albeit by a narrow margin.
Current Moldovan President Maia Sandu attributed the slim victory to foreign interference, specifically citing Russia as responsible for manipulating votes against the pro-EU initiative.
Ms. Sandu emerged with the highest vote in the first round of the presidential election held concurrently, but now faces a tough battle in the second-round run-off on November 3 against her pro-Russian rival, Aleksandr Stoianoglo, who is receiving support from several eliminated candidates from the first round.
In Georgia, numerous observers will monitor polling stations nationwide today to ensure the election is conducted fairly. At stake is the future of the country’s European aspirations, a goal that resonates deeply with many young citizens.
