The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is polling above 20% ahead of tomorrow’s federal election and appears poised to become the second largest party in the Bundestag.
However, this does not guarantee its inclusion in Germany’s next government.
None of the other parties expected to enter the Bundestag will partner with the AfD, in line with a long-standing agreement among the nation’s mainstream political entities to exclude the far-right from power. Given Germany’s historical burdens stemming from its Nazi past, this consensus has been inviolable for many decades.
That said, the AfD, which many political opponents label as extremist, has significantly influenced immigration debates during this election cycle, with its support polling higher than in the last federal election in 2021.
Founded in 2013 by a coalition of economics professors and journalists as a protest against the euro, the AfD shifted to adopt an anti-immigration focus during the migrant crisis of 2015 and 2016.
Mr. Scholz’s choice to temporarily reinstate border checks last September was in response to the evolving political conversations surrounding immigration in Germany.
The AfD currently holds 76 seats in the Bundestag, accounting for just under 10% of the total.
The party was initially established in 2013 as a protest against the euro by a group of economics professors and journalists, but it embraced its anti-immigration platform during the migrant crisis in 2015 and 2016.
During that period, Germany, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel and her centre-right CDU/CSU coalition, welcomed over one million refugees, primarily from the Middle East and Afghanistan.
This election cycle, the AfD has called for “remigration”—a term the party uses to describe mass deportation—of irregular immigrants and advocates for stricter border controls.
The party opposes military assistance for Ukraine and seeks to lift sanctions against Russia.
Furthermore, the AfD criticizes Germany’s European Union membership and supports a Brexit-style referendum on leaving the bloc, while maintaining its original opposition to the euro.
AfD leader Alice Weidel is a 46-year-old economist and former banker.
Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, the AfD opposed lockdown measures, contending that they infringe on personal freedoms. This anti-establishment perspective, combined with its stance on Ukraine, has enabled the AfD to broaden its support base.
Until now, that base has primarily resided in eastern Germany, where voters feel most acutely the impacts of the nation’s ailing economy.
Piotr Buras, a Polish scholar specializing in German politics, remarked to RTÉ News that Sunday’s election marks a “very significant moment” for the AfD.
Mr. Buras, who heads the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank, noted that along with the small far-left BSW party, the AfD could “hold a blocking minority regarding amendments to the constitution.”
This would grant the party substantial influence in obstructing proposed changes to defense policy.
The AfD has experienced leadership changes over the past decade but has stabilized under its current leader and the chancellor candidate, Alice Weidel.
Björn Höcke was convicted and fined last May for incorporating a Nazi-era slogan during a speech in 2021.
Ms. Weidel is a 46-year-old economist and former banker, who identifies as a lesbian and is in a civil partnership with a Sri Lankan film producer. The couple has two children.
She represents a West German faction leading a party primarily supported in the east and has garnered a broader appeal than earlier AfD leaders, with an increasing share of younger voters since 2021.
Ms. Weidel has also attracted international attention, including endorsements from figures like Elon Musk and US Vice President JD Vance.
Mr. Vance met with her following his appearance at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, though he did not meet with current Chancellor Scholz, indicating Ms. Weidel’s potential support from the new US administration.
Nevertheless, the AfD includes more extreme factions, such as Björn Höcke, who leads the party in Thuringia. He was found guilty and fined last May for using a Nazi-era slogan in a 2021 speech.
Since 2021, Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has classified the AfD as potentially extremist. Ms. Weidel has claimed that the BfV aims to exclude the party from democratic processes.
In January 2024, the investigative outlet Correctiv reported that AfD politicians gathered in Potsdam to discuss potential mass deportations of individuals of non-German descent, a revelation that shocked many Germans and ignited widespread protests against the AfD and far-right extremism.
Despite this, such incidents do not seem to have diminished the party’s support in the current campaign.
Recent attacks involving immigrants, including two car-ramming incidents resulting in fatalities, have intensified discussions around immigration policies.
A significant majority of German voters are opposed to the idea of the AfD gaining political power.
After the conclusion of the Munich Security Conference last weekend, I spent roughly an hour engaging with individuals in the snow-covered city about the key issues concerning them in this election.
Some individuals expressed concern about the AfD rather than discussing specific electoral issues. One retired gentleman described them as extremists—a typical stance among centrist voters in Germany.
Conversely, asking the same question in the AfD strongholds of Thuringia or Saxony might yield a distinctly different response.
While the AfD is unlikely to participate in the next German government, it will undeniably be a significant force in the upcoming Bundestag and will continue to shape the stance of mainstream parties on immigration.
