The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has expressed a desire to “pause and review” military assistance to Ukraine, sparking conversations about the potential medium-term consequences of withdrawing such support on Ukraine’s defense against Russia.
So, how much assistance does the US provide to Ukraine, how is this expenditure allocated, and what is its significance for Ukraine?
As the largest single donor of support to Ukraine, the United States significantly surpasses other contributors. In the previous week, we detailed the aid provided by the US compared to European nations, highlighting that various countries contribute a greater percentage of their GDP.
According to statistics from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a total of €267 billion in bilateral aid has been designated for Ukraine by donor nations. Out of this €267 billion, the US has offered €114 billion, with an additional €4 billion pledged but not yet disbursed.
Within that €114 billion in US assistance, €64 billion has been allocated to military aid, with another €1.4 billion awaiting allocation.
This amount constitutes nearly half of the €129 billion allocated for military aid to Ukraine by international donors collectively.
The US is closely followed by Europe as a collective body, which has additionally pledged €38 billion that has yet to be assigned to specific contracts or military equipment.
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When assessing military assistance, it’s important to recognize that the UST does not encompass the estimated costs of activities such as training Ukrainian soldiers, which often occurs outside Ukraine’s borders.
On what is the US military aid being utilized?
According to the UST, it is estimated that about €13.7 billion of the €64 billion of US military aid sent to Ukraine has been directed towards heavy weaponry.
This category includes armored vehicles, tanks, and howitzers. Additional funds have been allocated for ammunition, artillery shells, smaller arms, and equipment provided by the US.
The US particularly emphasizes enhancing Ukraine’s air defense systems, delivering three Patriot Surface to Air Missile (SAM) systems capable of intercepting incoming missiles or aircraft; 12 other SAM units; and 3,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
The Stinger is a portable, heat-seeking rocket launcher effective against both aircraft and drones, gaining prominence during the Soviet-Afghan conflict of the 1980s when used against Soviet helicopters.
This type of armament is especially critical given the ongoing nature of the conflict and the frequency of aerial assaults by Russian forces.
Moreover, the US has transferred over 40 HIMARS systems, mobile long-range precision rocket launchers used against military installations and infrastructure, as well as howitzers, and hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds.
Ukrainian forces launched a US-supplied HIMARS missile at a Russian target in 2022.
Additionally, the US has supplied 10,000 Javelins, weapons similar to Stingers but designed for use against tanks and armored vehicles.
In a post on X meant to bolster US-Ukraine relations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the Javelins’ importance to his military forces, noting they were initially supplied during President Trump’s first term in 2018.
“We truly appreciate the extent of America’s support in helping Ukraine uphold its sovereignty and independence. We recall when everything changed as President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are thankful for this,” he stated.
Despite the announced “pause and review” in US aid, it seems that intelligence sharing remains ongoing, as reported by Reuters. Ukrainian access to the Starlink system owned by Elon Musk, which is essential for secure communication, coordinating drone operations, and launching strikes, is also continuing.
If Starlink were unavailable, frontline personnel might have to depend on radio communications, significantly limiting their operational capabilities.
Speaking to RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, Dr. Frank Ledwidge, a Senior Lecturer in Strategy at Portsmouth University, emphasized the critical nature of Starlink and intelligence for Ukraine.
“The most pivotal action by the Americans, which would truly pressure the Ukrainians to negotiate immediately, isn’t merely the cessation of military support… it would be their assistance regarding intelligence, reconnaissance, and communication. That would be catastrophic for the Ukrainians.”
Reports suggest that the European Commission, UK, France, and various European satellite providers have been exploring potential alternative systems should Starlink services cease for Ukrainian forces.
Likewise, European nations are working on strategies to compensate for any shortfall that might arise if the US military aid ‘pause’ extends into a prolonged cessation.
European manufacturers might face challenges due to the restrictions of their production licensing, especially if they are producing US-designed weapons.
As Ukrainian politician Serhiy Rakhmanin told Reuters, much will hinge on whether the United States opts to obstruct manufacturers holding US production licenses who are willing to continue their support to Kyiv.
“If our European partners are free to act, and if they possess the time, motivation, funding, and capabilities to assist us, this situation will not be disastrous,” he remarked.
While the current US aid pause is not expected to have an immediate effect on the war or the frontline dynamics, its prolonged duration could significantly alter the situation.
Meanwhile, day and night, air defense missiles will be deployed to intercept incoming assaults on Ukrainian cities and positions, while tank shells will be directed at Russian forces.
The timeline for replacing each missile, shell, and bullet is now uncertain.
