The Syrian opposition has seized control of Damascus, effectively ousting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which had governed the country for five decades.This rapid rebel offensive appears to have unfolded almost instantaneously – taking place in just over ten days.
However, these ten or eleven days are merely the culmination of a 13-year struggle to dismantle the regime.For the past four years, the conflict has been characterized as “dormant” or “frozen” at various points.
It’s essential to recognize that despite frequent discussions about “the rebels” or “the Syrian opposition,” one significant reason for the prolonged nature of the Syrian civil war is the multitude of rebel factions involved.
An opposition fighter rejoices at Umayyad Square in Damascus.There are jihadist or extremist groups, moderate factions, and the Kurds. Unsurprisingly, there have been disagreements among these factions as well.
While many opposition groups claimed to have all-encompassing political objectives—asserting a desire to unite everyone—sectarianism has been a component of the conflict from the outset due to the diverse religious sects in Syria.
According to conflict theory, the more groups engaged in a war—referred to as “veto players”—the longer the conflict tends to last.
It is challenging to dismantle a government without a consensus on a strategy, and negotiating a ceasefire becomes complicated when more than two parties must be involved at the negotiating table.
Over the years, when Western governments considered intervening and offering support to the Syrian rebels, they often struggled to identify a cohesive, unified opposition front because it simply did not exist.
Currently, it appears that the rebel factions have largely united under the leadership of one group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
A woman waves a rebel flag following the collapse of the Assad regime.
Tahrir al-Sham, previously an affiliate of Al Qaeda, has since distanced itself from the organization.
It claims to be more moderate than in the past and expresses a desire to establish a civilian government.
The group also asserts it has been preparing for this decisive offensive across Syria for nearly a year. Although Turkish officials have strongly denied allegations, there is speculation that Turkey provided support to the coalition.
The second, more straightforward reason for this development is the weakened state of the Assad regime.
Until recently, Assad’s government had relied on backing from Russia, Iran, and the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah.
At the height of the civil war, the rebels controlled vast regions of Syria, including the north, south, east, and areas surrounding Damascus, exerting tremendous pressure on the Assad administration.
Crowds in Aleppo celebrate as rebels overthrow the Assad regime.
However, the situation shifted in 2015 when Russia launched relentless airstrikes against the rebels, effectively forcing them into submission.
The Syrian government subsequently reclaimed much territory.
Iran has long supported the regime by sending high-ranking military advisers to assist Assad’s forces, while Hezbollah militants have been active on the ground in Syria since at least 2011.
For very apparent reasons, these allies of Assad are currently preoccupied—Russia with its prolonged war in Ukraine, and Iran and Hezbollah stretched thin after over a year of conflict with Israel.
The loss for Russia is significant. Its military bases in Syria represented its only genuine foothold in the region, despite much of its resources having been redirected to Ukraine.
Although Russia recently pledged “unconditional support” to Assad’s regime and engaged in airstrikes on rebel-held areas, it was insufficient to halt their relentless progression.
The pressing question is what comes next.
The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham addressing crowds in Damascus.
Attention will quickly shift to Tahrir al-Sham’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.
Can he effectively unite the Syrian populace and the various factions across the country?
Syria’s prime minister has indicated that the government is willing to reach out to the opposition and assist in the establishment of a transitional government.
However, Tahrir al-Sham has governed the province of Idlib since 2017, which is home to millions of Syrians who fled government-held areas during the war.
They have ruled the city with a fairly conservative and hardline approach, facing protests along the way.
42-year-old Mr. al-Jolani has been accused of adopting an increasingly Islamist and dictatorial approach in recent years, overseeing violent crackdowns on demonstrators.
This style of governance is unlikely to be well-received throughout the rest of the country.
In a recent interview with The New York Times, Mr. al-Jolani stated that his coalition’s objective is to “liberate Syria from this oppressive regime.”
He has so far managed to maintain an alliance with other rebel factions that hold considerably more moderate views.
Nonetheless, Tahrir al-Sham is still classified as a terrorist organization by both the US and the United Nations.
Therefore, while this represents a moment of hope for many in Syria, it equally embodies a time of great uncertainty.
The rebels may have toppled a government, but it remains unclear if they can effectively govern.
