Every four years, the US presidential results night turns into a vibrant celebration of electoral maps, calls, surprises, and the distinction between winners and losers.
Based on my experience, the night doesn’t always adhere to a predictable course, and today could be a wild ride. If you plan to stay awake through the early hours, here are a few essential tips.
Exit Poll
This is a collective survey of voters conducted after they have cast their ballots.
Exit polls provide an early glimpse of who may be leading in a state and shed light on the issues that influenced voters’ decisions.
However, keep in mind that these are not definitive election data. Trends can shift as results come in, so it’s wise to approach exit polls with caution.
Midnight Calls
The first group of states will conclude voting at midnight Irish time, followed by more states at 1am, 2am, and 3am.
Since there is no central counting agency, the major four networks—CBS, ABC News, NBC News, and CNN—commence making projections.
When they feel confident about their analysis, a network will “call” a state, or the election, for a particular candidate.
Other media outlets often follow the lead of these US networks and the Associated Press, a trusted source for US election results for two centuries.
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270 to Win
The electoral college map of the United States takes center stage on results night.
Some states will quickly be declared for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, transforming the map into a red and blue puzzle.
Each state holds a number of the total 538 electoral votes—more populous states boast more electoral votes.
Both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump are likely to secure around 200 electoral college votes fairly swiftly. Reaching the crucial 270 will hinge on seven swing states.
And yes… a 269-269 tie is within the realm of possibility.
The Swing States
If predictions hold, the outcomes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona will determine the next president.
PA, MI, and WI are often referred to as the “blue wall,” while GA, AZ, NV, and NC are commonly known as the “sunbelt” states.
To add to the excitement, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District could become a potential kingmaker tonight.
Mail-in Ballots
Get ready to hear a lot about mail-in ballots—votes submitted by mail within the US.
Swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will only begin processing these ballots on election day.
While states will aim to count these quickly, anticipate some delays.
Overseas Ballots
US citizens living abroad and military personnel can mail their ballots right up until election day, meaning these won’t be counted tonight.
Historically, overseas voters haven’t been pivotal, but in the closest swing states, ballots—including those from Ireland—could be decisive.
House and Senate
The contest between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump is the main event, but don’t overlook the “down ballot” races.
Thirty-four of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House of Representatives seats are up for grabs.
A president can only achieve their agenda if their party controls either the House of Representatives or the Senate, ideally both.
A tumultuous night could see the Senate shift from Democratic to Republican control, and a Republican-dominated House of Representatives could gain a Democratic majority.
And if you’re curious about the animals on your screen, remember that donkeys represent Democrats while elephants symbolize Republicans.
Premature Declarations
Every network strives to be the first to announce results, but some occasionally get it wrong.
In November 2000, networks declared Florida for Democrat Al Gore.
Hours later, FOX News reversed that call in favor of Republican George W. Bush, and both announcements were retracted after a recount was deemed necessary.
Networks will exercise caution in calling closely contested states, especially amidst discussions of potential lawsuits.
Counts and Courts
On election night in 2020, Republicans sought court intervention to halt the counting of certain ballots in Pennsylvania and Georgia, citing election irregularities.
In this election, nearly 200 election-related lawsuits have been filed, primarily by Mr. Trump’s allies. Keep an eye out for legal disputes in swing states.
Mirages
These occur when initial indications show candidate A on track for victory, only for circumstances to change as more results come in, flipping the advantage to candidate B.
Popular Vote
One candidate invariably receives more votes than the other, a concept known as the popular vote.
While one may also secure the Electoral College, winning the popular vote does not guarantee presidency.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, yet Mr. Trump achieved the necessary 270 electoral college votes to claim the White House.
Victory Speech
Traditionally, once a winner is projected, that individual delivers a brief speech. In 2020, Mr. Trump disrupted this norm by declaring victory before the outcome was confirmed.
He continues to maintain that he won that race, and observers anticipate he may proclaim an early victory today—even if Ms. Harris is in the lead.
In Conclusion….
We understand the stakes and the candidates involved. Once the polls close, we will be eager to learn who the winner is. The night could unveil America’s 47th president surprisingly quickly or possibly not at all.
What remains certain is that it will be a captivating viewing experience.
RTÉ’s live TV special kicks off at 11.20pm, primarily following projections from CBS. The RTÉ News app will provide a results map based on data from Reuters.
