In 2020, Joe Biden secured victory in Wisconsin by a narrow margin of just 22,000 votes. This close call prompted the Republican Party to hold its convention in the state last July, with the hope that the spotlight of a major national event in a city the size of Dublin could influence the electorate.
The Fiserv Centre, where the RNC was held, has a capacity nearly identical to the vote gap between Biden and Trump in 2020—22,000 votes in a state where approximately 3.2 million people cast their ballots.
Yesterday, Kamala Harris made her sixth visit to the crucial swing state of Wisconsin, including a rally at the same Fiserv Centre during the Democratic Party Convention in nearby Chicago.
In a state known as a Blue Wall, voter turnout will be crucial, as every single vote holds significant weight leading up to next month’s presidential election.
Kamala Harris at a campaign event in Green Bay, Wisconsin yesterday.
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden garnered 49.45% while Donald Trump received 48.82% of the total votes.
Conversely, a recent Emerson College and “The Hill” poll indicates Harris trailing slightly at 48.7%, with Trump at 49.3%, representing a 0.6% difference despite a 3.5% margin of error.
This suggests that for Harris to match Biden’s half-point edge from 2020, she would need to see a more substantial lead in the polls, especially considering the previous tendency of polls to underestimate Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020.
So, what might be hindering the Vice President’s campaign?
A group of pro-Palestinian protesters gathered outside the University of Wisconsin in Milwaukee to express their dissent as Kamala Harris arrived for a campaign event. Isiah Martin, one of the demonstrators, disapproved of U.S. backing for the ongoing conflict but still intends to vote for Harris.
“Absolutely, I believe many Black men will, but I also think we need to hold her accountable for real change. True systematic changes are essential at some point.”
“This includes discussions on reparations and such. I firmly believe we can attain that, but I’m unsure if it will be Kamala or someone else.”
“I can’t tell who that will be, but voting for Trump is not an option for me, especially given the very real possibility that I or my community could face oppression again because of that vote—it’s utterly ridiculous.”
During her address, Harris spoke regarding the death of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, to the cameras but declined to take any questions. This served as an opportunity to project strength—essentially a presidential demeanor—at a critical juncture in international relations.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by Israeli troops in Gaza.
However, the sentiment among Wisconsinites doesn’t seem overly influenced by U.S. foreign policy; the same Emerson College poll revealed that only 0.4% identified it as the most pressing issue in this election. In contrast, 42.6% regarded the economy as the top concern, followed by 11.4% citing threats to democracy, and 8.9% pointing to reproductive rights and abortion access.
The university district represents only a fraction of the diverse demographic landscape that characterizes north Milwaukee, which spans from opulent lakeside condos to impoverished inland neighborhoods. This area is likely to be pivotal in determining the election’s outcome in Wisconsin.
‘A very high turnout election.’
At a Democratic Party campaign office located on West Lisbon Avenue, I spoke with Mark Ribbing, a volunteer from St. Louis, Missouri, dedicated to this critical electoral fight.
“It’s palpable, not just here in Wisconsin but nationwide, that early voting numbers are robust, and people’s interest in ensuring their votes are cast before election day is notable. Many are expecting—rightfully so—a very high turnout election, which motivates folks to ensure their votes are recorded promptly.”
I inquired if he had encountered any resistance while canvassing.
“Well, it’s a swing region, so you’re bound to meet supporters of the opposing side, which is how democracy operates,” Ribbing responded.
“Generally, those who express their support for the other side have been relatively civil. However, in the areas we’ve visited, most of the response leans toward support for Ms. Harris and Governor Walz.
“I’ve focused my efforts in Milwaukee, obviously an urban area, which is quite diverse.
“So in terms of ethnic composition and socioeconomics, I’ve visited a wide range of households and neighborhoods. Our goal is to mobilize everyone across the spectrum to get out and vote in this election.”
Democratic vice presidential nominee, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, appeared in Wisconsin earlier this week.
North Milwaukee houses the highest concentration of Black voters in the state. At an event hosted by the Black news channel Capital B to discuss Black engagement in elections—currently below the national average in this area—we met journalist Malaika Jabali, who is authoring a book on the Black vote in Wisconsin.
“Each swing state has its nuances. I’ve done some work looking at Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Georgia, where significant Black populations exist. You’ll find some who have voted for Trump, Obama, and Trump again, leaning toward a Republican alternative.”
“For many Black individuals, their primary consideration isn’t flipping their votes to a Republican candidate, but whether the parties are addressing the needs of their community. In Wisconsin, similar to Michigan, the ongoing industrial changes have created skepticism about where their votes lead.
“This year feels different, given the unprecedented candidacy of someone like Barack Obama. In Wisconsin, Black voter turnout reached around 78% for him in 2012. Even as they may feel neglected by both parties, they could still rally for a groundbreaking candidate.
“It’s uncertain if that enthusiasm will extend to Kamala Harris. However, based on preliminary discussions I’ve had with voters, there seems to be enough excitement to potentially secure a critical mass for Democrats to prevail.”
I inquired about Barack Obama’s recent comments, where he suggested that some Black men aren’t supporting Harris due to sexism.
“I’ve seen many Black voters, particularly Black men, genuinely excited about Kamala Harris. The statistics confirm this; in exit polls, they greatly support the Democratic Party.
“Black men tend to back the Democrats at about 78%. While differences may exist in how Black men and women vote, some individuals may see Trump as a more appealing candidate for reasons like small business ownership or personality traits. Sexism may also play a role, but I believe that sentiment is exaggerated. Many Black men canvassing for Kamala Harris appear truly enthusiastic about her candidacy.”
“I think this is an oversimplified perspective, one that glosses over legitimate concerns harbored by both Black men and women, young and old, regarding the Democratic Party as a whole.”
On the other hand, Erik Ngutse, an official with the Wisconsin Republican Party (the party established by Abraham Lincoln to combat slavery), critiqued Obama’s comments.
“Many men, particularly Black males, have witnessed Trump facing numerous legal challenges and feel like they can relate to his experience since many of them feel judged by the criminal justice system,” he expressed.
“Is it fair? Seeing Trump endure that yet emerge victorious resonates with many. His triumph aligns with their struggles.
“Conversely, Kamala’s history of incarcerating African American men, even when evidence indicated their innocence, has resulted in pushback from those who are aware of her record. The moment Obama suggested that Black males should ‘suck it up’ if they don’t want to vote for Kamala, it was arguably the worst thing he could have said, as it reinforces the belief that their voices are often ignored until election season arrives. This could play a decisive role in their choices.”
But will these perspectives translate into improved turnout among Black voters?
“Unfortunately, I think the turnout may not be substantial due to the candidate Democrats have nominated and given that my community typically votes overwhelmingly Democratic. So I anticipate lower than expected turnout for a crucial election,” he noted.
However, he added, “You may see a higher turnout among Black Republicans or independents.”
Read more: Latest U.S. election stories. Michigan: Kamala Harris has a challenge, and it’s called Gaza.
Corinne Rosen, representing the Working Families Party of Milwaukee, is in support of Kamala Harris in the presidential race. For her, the primary concern is the cost of living and the struggles many working-class families face to make ends meet on a single paycheck.
“People are suffering. Many face dire circumstances across the nation related to financial issues. I attended an event with Bernie Sanders two days ago, where a woman discussed the exorbitant cost of dental care and the need for it to be included in Medicaid for seniors.”
“There are countless individuals grappling with immediate issues that influence their day-to-day lives; we are committed to creating a nation that uplifts everyone.”
The escalating cost of living—is perceived as a significant vulnerability for the Democrats overall, particularly Kamala Harris. I asked Corinne if the people she’s engaging with are expressing concerns like, ‘Yes, but I have to eat too?’
“Interestingly, we’re not hearing ‘but I have to eat.’ Instead, people express their desire to support while also sharing that they struggle. Some juggle two or even three jobs to keep their families afloat, barely making ends meet.
“These are immediate concerns that arise from rampant greed in our nation.
“People are saying, ‘I go to work every day, but my minimum wage salary isn’t cutting it for rent.’ These are real, urgent challenges we’re confronting, and we aim to ensure individuals can survive on one paycheck and support their families.”
“I recently spoke with some families and said they ought to be able to afford a family vacation without it being a luxury; middle-class and working-class families should have such opportunities and enjoy life.”
Ultimately, this race centers on turnout—whether on November 5, through early voting, or mail-in ballots. It will hinge on who can best motivate voters to participate. It sounds straightforward, yet this state is poised to be a nail-biter on election night.
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