Brace for more heat: global average temperatures are expected to hover at or near record highs this year and remain elevated through at least the next four years, the United Nations has warned.
Every one of the 11 hottest years on record has occurred since 2015, and the UN’s weather and climate agency says that streak is set to continue, with a new all-time high considered “likely” before 2031.
There is a 75% chance that the 2026-2030 five-year mean temperature will surpass the key threshold of 1.5C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.
A pharmacy thermometer reads 38C in the French city Lyon earlier this week
The WMO’s latest outlook lands as western Europe bakes under a “heat dome” — a cap of warm air that has helped drive record May temperatures in Ireland, France and the UK.
“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years.
“It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record,” the agency said.
El Niño effect on 2027
An expected shift in the Pacific could play an outsize role, according to Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.
“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” he said.
The last El Niño helped propel 2023 to the position of second-hottest year recorded and pushed 2024 to an all-time high at around 1.55C above the pre-industrial average.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
1.3C to 1.9C range
The 2015 Paris climate accords set out to hold global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels — and ideally to keep it below 1.5C.
Those targets are measured against the 1850-1900 average, a period before industrial-scale burning of coal, oil and gas became widespread, releasing carbon dioxide — the greenhouse gas that is largely responsible for climate change.
“Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3C and 1.9C above the 1850-1900 average,” the WMO update said.
A woman shades her head with a fan during the recent very hot weather in Lisbon
On the agency’s projections, brief overshoots of the 1.5C mark look increasingly probable. The WMO said there was a 91% chance that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5C above the pre-industrial baseline for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
Furthermore, there is a 75% chance that the entire 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average.
Still, the outlook suggests the more extreme 2C level remains out of reach in the near term: it is considered exceptionally unlikely — less than 1% — that any single year will exceed 2C above the pre-industrial baseline in the next five years.
Arctic heat warning
The WMO cautioned that the 1.5C line is expected to be crossed more often as the planet warms.
It also underlined that the 1.5C and 2C limits set out in the Paris accords refer to sustained, long-term warming — typically assessed over 20 years — meaning short-lived breaches do not automatically signal that the long-term goal has been lost.
Last year was one of the three warmest years on record, with the globally averaged near-surface temperature estimated at more than 1.43C above the 1850-1900 baseline.
Arctic temperatures were predicted to be 2.8C above the average over the next five winters
The report was produced by the UK’s Met Office national weather service and the WMO’s lead centre for annual to decadal climate prediction, drawing together forecasts from 13 different institutes.
It found the Arctic is likely to continue warming much faster than the planet as a whole. Arctic temperatures over the next five northern hemisphere winters (November to March) were predicted to be 2.8C above average temperatures for 1991-2020 — more than triple the global temperature anomaly for the same period.
Looking beyond temperature, the outlook also flagged regional shifts in rainfall. Predicted precipitation patterns for May to September from 2026 to 2030 forecast wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, as well as dry anomalies over the Amazon.
