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Armenian PM secures confidence vote, solidifying the country’s westward shift

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Armenia PM wins vote, cementing westward tilt
Nikol Pashinyan's party won 49.8% of votes with all polling stations counted

Armenia’s voters have handed Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan a renewed mandate — but not the sweeping victory his government needs as it tries to navigate a fraught peace process with Azerbaijan and a sharper turn toward Western partners at the expense of long-time patron Russia.

The ruling Civil Contract party captured 49.8% of the vote after all polling stations were counted, according to results released today by the Central Election Commission (CEC). That marks a drop from the 54% the party secured in the 2021 election.

At the same time, the count delivered a stronger-than-anticipated showing for three main pro-Russian opposition forces, which together collected 37% of ballots and are, preliminarily, set to join Civil Contract in parliament.

Yesterday’s vote was Armenia’s first general election since its crushing military ‌defeat by Azerbaijan in 2023, following ⁠years of conflict and political turbulence.

Speaking at a press conference in the early hours of this morning, Mr Pashinyan declared his party the winner and described the outcome as an “historic victory”.

“The Armenian people voted for regional prosperity and co-operation and I hope this will draw a positive response from Turkey and Azerbaijan,” he said, while pledging to keep building ties with both Western countries and Russia.

Government ⁠accused of rigging the vote

Yet the results also underscore the limits of Mr Pashinyan’s win. Civil Contract did not secure the two-thirds parliamentary majority required to call a constitutional referendum sought by Azerbaijan as part of a peace deal — a step tied to efforts to end a conflict that has flared intermittently since the late 1980s and to normalise relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s key ally.

The final distribution ‌of parliamentary seats is not yet clear.

Several opposition groups challenged both the emerging outcome and Mr Pashinyan’s decision to proclaim victory early, when returns from just over one-fifth of the country’s 2,005 polling sites showed Civil Contract on about 54%.

His main rival, Samvel Karapetyan — a Russian-Armenian billionaire who founded Strong Armenia last year and ran on a pro-business platform — accused the government ⁠of manipulating the election.

“Rest assured the elections are not over yet and there areno results. They (the authorities) will not get ⁠the victory they desire,” Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted him as saying.

The Armenia Alliance also said Mr Pashinyan’s declaration was premature, calling it “pressure on the CEC and usurpation of power,” according to Interfax.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which monitored the election, will hold a press conference this morning.

Three opposition groups cleared the threshold required to enter parliament: the Strong Armenia alliance with 23.2%, the Armenia Alliance with 9.9%, and the Prosperous Armenia party with 4%.

Turnout in the landlocked ‌country of three million was strong, with nearly 59% of eligible voters casting ballots.