Oil traders woke to a fresh jolt from the Middle East today as Brent crude futures pushed back above $100 a barrel, a milestone not seen since July 24, after a new round of attacks — including incidents involving tankers — dashed expectations that shipping lanes could return to anything resembling normal.
The jump effectively caught up futures prices with the physical crude and fuel markets, where trades have already been clearing above the psychological $100 level.
Front-month Brent crude futures gained $2.66, or 2.7%, to $100.60 a barrel this evening after earlier touching $100.95. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.65, or 2.8%, to $95.68 a barrel, the highest since early June.
Since the Iran war began on February 28, Brent has spiked as high as $126.41 a barrel, with that peak reached on April 30.
“The move towards and back above $100 Brent is reflecting a market that increasingly has to change its view on how long the Middle East crisis will continue to curb supply from the region,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
The latest surge follows what analysts described as a sharp intensification in the six-month-old war in recent days, with US forces striking multiple Iranian oil tankers and Iran hitting a US base in Jordan and attacking ships.
A seafarer was killed in an incident involving the Gibraltar-flagged oil products tanker Hercules Star while at anchorage off Dubai, the vessel’s charterer Peninsula said today.
Adding to the strain, attacks this week by Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi energy facilities have set oil installations ablaze, raising fears the confrontation could widen significantly.
Those assaults are also threatening crude shipments via the Red Sea — a key alternative to the vital Strait of Hormuz — where oil flows have already been severely curtailed.
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“Market participants appear to be pricing in a more prolonged conflict in the Middle East as well as the risk that the latest escalation in military strikes disrupts oil flows from the Middle East,” said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.
“The key risk is whether the recent attacks on oil tankers lead to fewer ship-to-ship transfers taking place in the Gulf of Oman, which have so far played a key role in providing oil to global markets and keeping a lid on prices,” he added.
In another sign of disruption, a tanker carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil was struck by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters today, port officials said. Separately, UKMTO, a British navy-linked agency, said several merchant vessels in the Gulf had been hit by disabling fire overnight.
Rystad Energy’s Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti said that in the week before a resumption in fighting on August 30, about 8 million to 9 million barrels per day moved through Hormuz — roughly double the previous week.
More recently, flows have slipped below 2 million bpd. Preliminary Kpler shipping data showed six commodity vessels transited the strait yesterday, down from nine a day earlier and under the 10-day average of about 12.
In the physical crude market, the dated Brent benchmark — used to price roughly two-thirds of global supply — has held above $100 per barrel since September 3, according to LSEG data.
Physical markets, which involve quicker deliveries than futures contracts that typically begin a month out, tend to react fastest when supply is threatened, as buyers must rapidly source replacement cargoes.
Consumers, meanwhile, have effectively been paying above $100 for much of the year through refined fuels such as gasoline and diesel, as conflicts helped create a global refining crunch that sent fuel prices soaring even compared with crude.
European diesel futures were trading at around $199 per barrel on Wednesday, and have not fallen below $100 per barrel since the start of the Iran war.
Diesel refining margins — the premium paid over crude — have hovered at all-time highs since August as shortages tightened markets, reaching $78.90 per barrel on September 1.
That compares with an average margin of $21 per barrel in 2025 and $19.52 in 2024.
“We’re in a situation where actually, if we had normal refining margins, crude would be the equivalent of about $150,” said Alan Gelder, senior vice-president for refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.
Global refining capacity is under pressure due to reduced exports from the Strait of Hormuz and Russia and restrained throughputs in Asia, he added.
Energy markets beyond oil also tightened. European gas prices jumped to their highest level since early 2023, climbing above €80 per megawatt-hour (MWh) as the United States-Iran conflict flared again and Europe’s reserves remained seasonally low.
The Dutch TTF contract — Europe’s benchmark — rose 4.4% to €79.21 per MWh after earlier hitting €80.99, a spike that comes as the region works to rebuild inventories ahead of winter.
