Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s future was uncertain after his coalition appeared to have disastrously lost its upper house majority in elections that saw strong gains by a right-wing populist party.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed almost continuously since 1955, and its partner Komeito had to win 50 seats in yesterday’s vote but they fell three short, national broadcaster NHK reported.
Voters angry at inflation turned to other parties, notably the “Japanese first” Sanseito, which made strong gains with its “anti-globalist” drive reminiscent of US President Donald Trump’s agenda.
The debacle comes only months after Mr Ishiba’s coalition was forced into a minority government in the more powerful lower house, in the LDP’s worst result in 15 years.
Local media interpreted comments late yesterday by Mr Ishiba, who became LDP leader in September on the fifth attempt, as meaning that he intends to stay on despite the result.
“It’s a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously,” Mr Ishiba told broadcaster NHK.
“We can’t do anything until we see the final results, but I want to be very aware of our responsibility,” he added.
If Mr Ishiba goes, it was unclear who might step up to become the LDP’s 11th premier since 2000 now that the government needs opposition support in both chambers.
“Ishiba may be replaced by someone else, but it’s not clear who will be the successor,” Hidehiro Yamamoto, politics and sociology professor at the University of Tsukuba said.
LDP general secretary Hiroshi Moriyama, the number two in the party, was quoted as saying that a political vacuum should be avoided.
In the election, 125 seats in the 248-seat upper house were contested.
The coalition needed 50 of those up for grabs, but NHK and others said they only won 47, with the LDP winning 39 and Komeito eight, giving them 122 deputies.
Second-placed was the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) which won 22 of those being contested followed by the Democratic Party For the People (DPP) with 17.
Sanseito grabbed 14 seats.
Approximately 20,000 people gathered for Sanseito’s final street rally ahead of the Upper House election
After years of stagnant or falling prices, consumers in the world’s fourth-largest economy have been squeezed by inflation since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In particular, the price of rice has doubled, squeezing many household budgets despite government handouts.
Voter Hisayo Kojima – one of legions of older people in Japan’s falling and ageing population – said outside a voting station that her pension “is being cut shorter and shorter”.
“We have paid a lot to support the pension system. This is the most pressing issue for me,” the 65-year-old told AFP in Tokyo.
Not helping is lingering resentment about an LDP funding scandal, and US tariffs of 25% due to bite from 1 August if there is no trade deal with the US.
Japanese imports are already subject to a 10% tariff, while the auto industry, which accounts for eight percent of jobs, is reeling from a 25% levy.
‘Japanese first’
The opposition is fragmented, and chances are slim that the parties can form an alternative government.
Populist opposition party Sanseito wants “stricter rules and limits” on immigration, opposes “globalism” and “radical” gender policies, and wants a rethink on decarbonisation and vaccines.
Last week, it was forced to deny any links to Moscow – which has backed populist parties elsewhere – after a candidate was interviewed by Russian state media.
“They put into words what I had been thinking about but couldn’t put into words for many years,” one voter told AFP at a Sanseito rally.
