The future is Somalia: The World Still Runs on Oil — and Somalia Still Holds One of Its Greatest Untapped Reserves.
The world has long seen Somalia through the prism of geopolitics and conflict, but few of its people have ever seen the country’s geological wealth.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) states that Somalia, which stretches along the longest coastline on the African continent and is rich in natural gas, gold, bauxite, uranium, limestone, and fertile agricultural land, is one of the few nations that “could feasibly feed much of the Horn of Africa.” However, the nation’s oil reserves—which have been valued at up to 100 billion barrels by multiple independent geophysical surveys—are the subject of both domestic and international discussion.
In comparison, Saudi Arabia has approximately 266 billion barrels of proven reserves. Even though Somalia’s potential is unproven and unequally distributed, the nation could become one of the major energy frontiers in the world if even a small portion of it turns out to be commercially viable.
A Future Without Oil Is Not Promised by the Green Transition
A friend of mine recently argued that Somalia’s timing is bad—entry into the era of electric cars, climate pledges, and what many believe to be the end of oil. The friend declared, “Petrol cars are a thing of the past.”
Though incomplete, the claim speaks to a global narrative. According to Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), “there is no plausible scenario in which oil demand suddenly collapses.”
“Petrochemicals, aviation, shipping, and heavy industry have relied on oil for decades, even in the most ambitious energy-transition pathways.”
In fact, even with aggressive climate action, the IEA’s own long-term projections indicate that oil demand will plateau rather than disappear.
Everything Is Made of Oil
The future of oil is not solely determined by tailpipes, despite what many people think. Typical electric vehicles include:
Petrochemical-based plastics
Tires made of synthetic rubber
Petroleum-based insulation materials
Industrial chemicals and lubricants necessary for battery manufacturing
Daniel Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning energy historian and vice chair of S&P Global, asserts that oil is the foundation of contemporary materials.
“Today’s industrial civilization would come to a complete stop if petroleum-based products were eliminated from the global supply chain.”
Composites and resins based on petrochemicals are necessary for even renewable energy infrastructure, such as solar panels and wind turbine blades.
Additionally, even though more and more cars are being charged using renewable energy, most regions, including emerging markets, still rely heavily on natural gas for their power grid.
The Drought of Discovery
In a surprising turn of events, a statistic that has been raising concerns among energy analysts: the number of oil discoveries is at its lowest level since the 1940s.
Simply put, Sonia Mladá Passos, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy:
“This is unlike anything we have seen in over 70 years.”
Sonia cautioned that the world could experience a long-term supply shortage if exploration funding is not increased, a sentiment shared by several energy forecasting organizations.
Geology is not the only factor contributing to this decline; years of lower exploration funding are also to blame. Oil companies around the world cut spending after the 2014 market crash, and many haven’t yet returned to their pre-crisis levels.
This shortage offers Somalia a chance: in a global market that is becoming more competitive, late entrants with unexplored basins may prove invaluable.
The Energy Paradox and Population Growth
The situation is complicated by demographic realities even as countries aim for decarbonization. By 2050, there will likely be nine billion people on the planet, increasing demand for hydrocarbon-intensive industries like manufacturing, fertilizers, transportation, and construction.
According to Amy Myers Jaffe, a renowned expert on international energy policy, “energy transitions take decades to unfold.”
“The embedded infrastructure of a petroleum-based world cannot be immediately replaced by even the most ambitious renewable rollout.”
A Takeaway for Somalia
Let me state with pride and frustration that Somalia’s challenge is not only to access its resources but also to manage them effectively. There are many warning stories about economies that rely heavily on oil, but there are also many examples of nations that have used their wealth from natural resources to invest in long-term national capacity, education, and technology.
Professor Paul Stevens, an energy economist at Chatham House, observes that a country does not become rich simply because it has oil.
“It is the governance that surrounds it.”
During the Cold War, Mohamed Siad Barre, the former leader of Somalia, opposed selling the country’s oil rights on unfavourable terms. Whether viewed as political scheming or strategic foresight, the legacy is undeniable: Somalia’s resources are still largely undeveloped and await a future shaped by the Somali people themselves, not by foreign interests or warlords.
A Future That Is Still Up for Discussion
It is unlikely that oil will soon disappear from the global economy. The production of materials, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, synthetic fibers, and the international trade networks that support modern life will all be fueled by it, even if it powers fewer engines.
This reality is a warning as well as a promise for Somalia. Richness in resources has the power to strengthen or weaken a country. However, I believe that if Somalia makes investments in education, research, technology, health, and innovation in addition to extraction, the natural resources that lie beneath our soil may become the catalyst for a completely different future. A future in which the destiny of our natural inheritance is decided by ourselves, not by foreign corporations or geopolitical actors.
Written by Ahmed Mohamed Sheikh
ahmedsheykh@gmail.com
