With the clock ticking toward another round of global climate negotiations, the United Nations says countries’ newest climate pledges still fall dramatically short of what scientists warn is needed to keep dangerous warming in check.
The latest national commitments would reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by just 6% by 2035, according to a UN report released weeks before COP31 talks in Turkey.
That projected drop is only about one-tenth of the roughly 60% cut from 2019 levels that researchers say is required to limit warming to 1.5C. The outlook also marks a setback from last year’s estimate, after the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement.
UN Climate Change compiled the assessment from 154 countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — mandatory submissions under the 2015 Paris deal — received between January 2024 and August 2026. Those plans represent 71% of global emissions, the report said.
Even under a more optimistic scenario — in which countries not only carry out their pledges but also achieve their conditional targets — the report found emissions would still decline only 9% by 2035.
By comparison, the UN’s estimate last year pointed to a 10% cut by 2035. That earlier figure was calculated before many NDCs had been submitted, requiring the UN to model missing pledges, and before the United States was removed from the accounting.
Under President Donald Trump, the United States has exited the Paris Agreement for a second time and is pursuing policies that heavily favour fossil fuels.
Separate findings last week from the United Nations Environment Programme underscored the widening gap: global commitments to curb planet-heating emissions currently put the world on track for 2.6C of warming this century.
“With its focus on practical measures to support greater implementation,” the COP31 meeting in Turkey “can help address some of the key gaps,” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said in a statement.
Scientific benchmarks remain far steeper than what governments have put on the table. To have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to 1.5C by 2100 compared with pre-industrial levels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates global greenhouse gas emissions must fall 60% from 2019 levels by 2035.
For pathways that keep warming below 2C — the Paris Agreement’s fallback goal — emissions would need to drop 37% by 2035.
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Researchers warn that every additional fraction of a degree above 1.5C raises the risk of extreme weather and increases the likelihood of irreversible planetary shifts, including dying coral reefs and thawing permafrost.
The planet has already warmed by roughly 1.4C compared with pre-industrial times, and crossing 1.5C is expected within a matter of years.
Alongside the emissions assessment, the UN released another report today saying climate finance is rising but remains well below what is needed to rein in warming.
Global climate finance flows averaged $1.9 trillion per year in 2023 and 2024, a 32% jump compared with 2021 and 2022. The increase was driven largely by private investment in low-emission technology — including renewable electricity generation — as well as private household spending on electric vehicles and heat pumps.
