Warm waters spreading across the tropical Pacific are setting the stage for a major El Niño that could push global temperatures higher and sharpen the risk of extreme weather in the months ahead, the World Meteorological Organisation has said.
In its latest update, the agency said its forecasting models put the odds at 80% that above-average temperatures will be recorded almost everywhere from June to August.
It also reported a 90% likelihood that El Niño’s warming influence will persist and strengthen through November and beyond.
UN Secretary General António Guterres urged governments and communities to treat the WMO’s findings as an urgent climate warning, cautioning that El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.
He said the impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.
Read more: Scientists fear rising temperatures may become new normal
The ocean warming that triggers El Niño is among the most powerful natural climate patterns on Earth, capable of reshaping weather far from the Pacific.
El Niño is defined by warmer-than-usual sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific.
It typically returns every two to seven years and tends to last about nine to 12 months.
Most events begin taking shape between March and June, peak between November and February, and often leave their strongest imprint on global temperatures in the second year after they emerge.
The WMO said there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events.
But it noted that extra background warming in the atmosphere linked to climate change can amplify the impacts associated with an El Niño.
The system cycles between El Niño and its counterpart La Niña, with neutral periods in between.
El Niño conditions could affect global temperature and rainfall patterns
Meteorologists are predicting that although global temperatures will be elevated this year, next year 2027, is already shaping up to be the hottest year on record.
WMO Secretary General Andrea Celeste Saulo said countries should brace for the possibility of a strong El Niño, warning it can intensify drought and heavy rainfall and raise the risk of heatwaves over land and in the ocean.
The last El Niño, spanning 2023 and 2024, ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures seen in 2024.
El Niño’s typical footprint includes heavier rain in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, sections of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, alongside drier conditions across Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
The warmer Pacific waters associated with El Niño can also energise hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
At the same time, El Niño generally suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin, a quieter pattern that can influence Ireland.
WMO is warning of above normal temperatures
Forecast maps of global temperature and precipitation released with the WMO’s El Niño update indicate Ireland may see reduced rainfall linked to the phenomenon.
Ireland was among the European countries that recorded record-breaking temperatures last month.
The WMO’s outlook suggests temperatures in Ireland are likely to run above normal, but that the country may avoid the core warming impacts expected from the developing El Niño.
Regional climate centres are forecasting “below-normal” rainfall during the crucial June-to-September rainy season in the northern Greater Horn of Africa; below-average monsoon rainfall in south Asia; and warmer, drier summer conditions in central America.
In the northern hemisphere summer, El Niño’s warm waters can boost hurricane development in the central and eastern Pacific while inhibiting storms in the Atlantic.
The WMO said early warnings are intended to support preparedness—particularly for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy and health.
Additional reporting AFP
