An El Niño has taken shape in the tropical Pacific, and Australia’s weather bureau says it could strengthen into one of the most powerful events seen in 70 years.
The Bureau of Meteorology warned that a stronger El Niño would likely deliver a familiar split of extremes: excessive rainfall across parts of the Americas, and hot, dry conditions in Asia, where disruptions to crop planting are already stoking worries about food supplies in the world’s most populous region.
According to the bureau, sea surface temperatures in the region have pushed beyond El Niño thresholds, while atmospheric signals have also fallen into step — a combination that confirms the arrival of a phenomenon known for driving weather to both ends of the scale.
“Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific,” it said in a statement.
“Around half of the models indicate this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950.”
Scientists have said climate change will supercharge the effects of this year’s El Niño.
El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is associated with reduced rainfall in winter and spring — particularly along Australia’s east coast — as well as higher daytime temperatures in the south, the bureau said.
For Australia, the stakes are high. The pattern has a track record of hitting agricultural production, and the country is among the world’s biggest exporters of wheat, sugar and beef.
The last El Niño experienced in Australia from 2023 to 2024 caused the driest three-month period on record.
An earlier episode ranked among the strongest on record: the 2015 and 2016 El Niño triggered widespread drought and cut grain and oilseed output.
