A new tropical threat has emerged in the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Arthur has formed near the Texas coast, and forecasters warn it could unleash life-threatening flooding across parts of the southeastern United States, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm, the first named system of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, was positioned about 60km east-northeast of Port O’Connor, Texas, this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana—an energy-heavy stretch of coastline that includes major refineries and liquefied natural gas processing facilities around Port Arthur and Lake Charles.
Tony Dupont, chief operating officer at Earth Science Associates, said a model built on impacts from past storms is projecting that roughly 10,000 barrels of oil could be lost due to shut-ins at offshore platforms located in Arthur’s projected path.
Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist, tracks the storm at the National Hurricane Center
“Part of the past losses occur due to an abundance of caution for personnel and other dangers, and that is part of the data in the model, though for the current storm we haven’t seen those actions, so it is likely to be on the low side of the forecast,” he said in an emailed response to questions.
The Gulf Coast refining corridor from Corpus Christi to Pascagoula, Mississippi, accounts for about half of total US refining capacity, which stands at 18.4 million barrels per day.
The largest US refinery is the Saudi Aramco-owned Motiva Enterprises’ Port Arthur, Texas, plant, with throughput of 730,000 barrels per day, according to the company.
Also along the storm’s potential track are other major facilities, including Exxon Mobil’s XOM.N refinery in Beaumont, Texas.
The coastal region is also home to major LNG operators: giants such as Cheniere and Venture Global run significant liquefaction facilities there.
Exxon Mobil, Motiva Enterprises, Cheniere and Venture Global did not immediately respond to requests for comment about storm preparations.
On the weather front, Arthur is expected to deliver widespread rain totals of 12cm to 25cm.
The National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, said isolated higher amounts near 50cm are possible through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, as well as western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
“Very heavy rainfall is expected to fall across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi, where there can be significant and even life-threatening flooding, before spreading northeastward through the Carolinas and Georgia,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
AccuWeather said significant rain is likely to persist through Friday across the Southeast, with the area at greatest risk shifting from far eastern Texas and Louisiana toward Georgia by Friday.
