A powerful El Niño now taking shape in the Pacific could rewrite the record books — and with it, sharpen the risk of droughts, floods and other weather extremes around the world, according to a leading forecaster.
Tim Stockdale, an El Niño specialist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said multiple forecast models are converging on an “extreme” event.
After more than three decades studying the climate pattern, Stockdale said he has not seen anything comparable to what models are projecting this year.
“I think it’s absolutely true to say we’ve never had a forecast of an El Nino that was so strong and so consistent across (forecast) models,” he said during a media briefing.
Stockdale added that it would be “a very, very big surprise” if the event did not end up setting new benchmarks.
“I would expect it to break records, but no guarantees,” he said.
Cows lie in a dried up field in southern France
El Niño occurs when surface waters warm across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, a shift that can ripple outward to alter winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns far beyond the ocean basin.
The phenomenon typically emerges every two to seven years and usually persists for about nine to 12 months.
When layered on top of human-caused climate change, the last El Niño helped push global temperatures higher — contributing to 2023 becoming the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest ever recorded.
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El Niño’s global imprint is often uneven: parched conditions can settle in some regions while others face heavier rains and heightened flood risk.
Last month, the US weather agency said El Niño had formed and was expected to intensify, potentially reaching historic strength.
And last week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that El Niño is likely to strengthen rapidly, developing into a strong event between July and September.
Villages and farmlands in Hengzhou, Nanning in China are submerged by floodwaters
UN food aid agencies, citing the looming hazards, appealed last month for funding to support preventive measures linked to El Niño.
In India, agricultural officials said they would draw up contingency plans to help farmers manage the threat of reduced rainfall associated with the pattern.
Across many parts of Asia, El Niño years frequently bring drier-than-average conditions and drought.
The phenomenon can weaken the South Asian monsoon, cutting off critical rains for India and other parts of the subcontinent — precipitation that underpins livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people.
In Australia, El Niño is also associated with a greater chance of drought, heatwaves and wildfires as warmer-than-average conditions spread across the continent.
It is often linked to increased rainfall in parts of the Horn of Africa.
At the same time, large areas of southern, west, central and eastern Africa tend to experience drier-than-normal weather.
In western South America, including coastal Peru and Ecuador, strong El Niño events often deliver above-average rainfall, raising the risk of flooding and landslides.
Meanwhile, northern Brazil is typically drier during El Niño, a pattern that can elevate the threat of wildfires in the Amazon.
Europe may face ‘more deadly weeks’ as new heatwave builds – WHO
Separately, the World Health Organization warned that Europe could be heading into “more deadly weeks” as another intense heatwave gathers over the Atlantic.
In the coming days, temperatures in Portugal and southern Spain are forecast to rise as high as 43 degrees Celsius.
Temperatures in Europe may hit 40C or higher in the current heatwave
Experts have described last month’s heatwave as the most severe ever recorded in Europe, disrupting power generation, damaging infrastructure and putting healthcare systems under strain.
Scientists said the extreme temperatures were almost certainly driven by climate change, scientists said.
France, the Netherlands and Belgium registered 3,700 excess deaths during the heatwave from 20 to 28 June; officials stressed the tally is preliminary and could increase.
