Brazil’s presidential race has been jolted by an unexpected first-round result: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of far-right former leader Jair Bolsonaro, edged ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, sending the contest to a run-off in three weeks.
Defying opinion polls that had put Mr Lula in front, Flavio Bolsonaro took about 47% of the vote, while the incumbent secured 45%.
If Mr Bolsonaro prevails in the 25 October election, Brazil would become the latest Latin American country to tilt to the right — a regional shift championed by US President Donald Trump.
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva addresses supporters in Sao Paulo
The vote also delivered a string of important parliamentary gains for the right, compounding the challenge for Mr Lula, who at 80 is pursuing a fourth term in a bid to cement his political legacy.
Framing the stakes in stark terms, Mr Lula cast the contest as a fight between democracy and “barbarism” and told voters Brazil’s sovereignty was under threat amid pressure from the United States.
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, had maintained a relatively low profile nationally until receiving the backing of his jailed father, and had not previously signalled plans to seek the presidency.
Mr Lula called his first-round stumble “unexpected”, but promised a stronger campaign heading into the decisive vote in three weeks.
“I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round. The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people,” the 80-year-old said.
Bolsonaro dynasty
During the campaign, it emerged that Flavio Bolsonaro was under investigation for corruption linked to the financing of the biopic “Dark Horse” about his father.
The project was bankrolled by jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is under investigation in connection with a financial scandal.
For many voters, the revelations appeared to make little difference.
“Things are truly terrible. As far as I’m concerned, the left just doesn’t work anymore,” said tech worker Joao Batista, 36, saying he was frustrated by the “horrible” cost of basic goods.
Flavio Bolsonaro speaks to supporters in Brasilia
The probe also triggered a rare public clash in the Supreme Court — a confrontation experts said hurt Mr Lula’s campaign.
Even so, some Brazilians expressed little enthusiasm for another election dominated by familiar names.
Oscarina de Oliveira, a 62-year-old caregiver, said she had intended to vote for Mr Lula, as she always has. But “when I got there, I switched to Bolsonaro. Just to see what happens, to see if anything changes.”
The election signalled a resurgence for the Bolsonaro family after Jair Bolsonaro lost his re-election bid in 2022, a defeat that was followed by violent riots in the capital and his conviction last year for attempting a coup.
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and another one of Jair Bolsonaro’s sons, Carlos Bolsonaro, both won seats in the Senate.
Jair Bolsonaro’s youngest son, Jair Renan, 28, was elected as a federal politician.
Trump watches on
Mr Trump said he was watching the election “very closely”, though he stopped short of endorsing Flavio Bolsonaro.
The US president has used tariffs and sanctions to pressure Brasilia over complaints that include the trial of his ally Jair Bolsonaro and allegations of unfair trade practices.
Mr Lula repeatedly warned Mr Trump not to “meddle” in the elections.
He also pledged that Brazil would keep control over developing its vast rare-earth reserves, resources that have drawn attention from Washington and other foreign powers.
Some supporters of Mr Lula followed the results in Cinelandia square in downtown Rio de Janeiro
“I support Lula because he stands up for the poor. Flavio will sell our Brazil off to foreigners,” said Victor Jorge Martins, a 25-year-old event planner.
Flavio Bolsonaro has argued Brazil could be a “solution” to reduce US reliance on China for critical minerals.
Climate change absent
Widely praised for social welfare programmes that lifted millions out of poverty, Mr Lula returned to office in the 2022 elections after serving time in prison on a corruption conviction later overturned on procedural grounds.
In his third term, inflation and unemployment fell. Still, many voters say the cost of living remains too high.
Mr Lula has also moved aggressively to curb deforestation in the Amazon, while supporting oil exploration.
Despite an increasing number of extreme weather events across Brazil, climate change has largely been missing from the campaign debate.
“It is important to elect a candidate who defends our territory, who defends nature,” said Tainara da Costa Cruz, 22, who lives on the banks of the Rio Negro in Amazonas state and voted for Mr Lula.
