Berlin is being gripped by fresh political intrigue after rumours swirled that rivals of Chancellor Friedrich Merz were quietly preparing to push him aside as his popularity sinks, reforms stall and the far right continues to gain ground.
Talk of internal manoeuvring inside the centre-right CDU hit a new peak this week, with speculation that the party could seek to replace Mr Merz — described as Germany’s most unpopular modern-day chancellor — after only a year in office.
German outlets have framed the chatter as a “chancellor swap” debate, reporting that Hendrik Wuest, the state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, is being mentioned as a possible alternative.
Even so, most commentators say they do not expect Mr Merz to be forced out in the near term.
Still, the episode highlights the shakier mood in German politics, long considered staid, less than two years after former chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition imploded and triggered early elections.
At a routine press conference in Berlin, the chancellor’s spokesman moved to shut down the reports.
“You were right to call this a rumour, to speak of speculation – and that’s why I won’t comment on it,” Stefan Kornelius replied when questioned.
He said the atmosphere in the chancellery remained positive. “The mood in the chancellery is very good and constructive,” Mr Kornelius insisted, adding the government was concentrating on its reform agenda and urging people to “avoid side debates”.
‘Playing with fire’
In separate briefings to local media, government sources struck a sharper tone, branding the claims “wild speculation” — in German, “wueste Spekulation” — a pun widely read as a pointed jab at the man whose name has been floated, Mr Wuest.
One government source accused those fuelling the chatter of showing “a dangerous desire to play with fire” and warned it could undermine stability in Germany.
The turbulence comes as the 70-year-old Mr Merz faces criticism from multiple directions.
A much-touted spending blitz aimed at kick-starting the struggling economy has progressed slowly, while overdue healthcare and pension reforms have become mired as the CDU clashes with its coalition partner, the centre-left SPD.
Hendrik Wuest is the state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia
Mr Merz’s personal ratings have dropped sharply. A Forsa survey published this week found just 14% said they were satisfied with him, compared with 84% who were dissatisfied.
“They’ve now had over a year to get policies off the ground, and in the major areas… not a great deal has happened yet,” said Aiko Wagner, a political scientist at the Freie Universitaet Berlin.
The chancellor has also so far failed to blunt the advance of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which continues to lead opinion polls ahead of his CDU/CSU conservative bloc.
Mounting pressure
Mr Wuest, 50, comes from the more centrist current within the CDU and is aligned with former chancellor Angela Merkel — Mr Merz’s long-time bitter political rival.
He has not directly addressed the reports.
However, asked whether he wanted to serve as a replacement for Mr Merz, he was reported to have replied only that he was “not a good football player”, stopping short of a clear denial.
He has also been working to raise his national profile, recently travelling to Poland on an official visit and bringing along political journalists based in Berlin.
A German chancellor can leave office before a term ends — through resignation or a vote of no confidence — but such an exit is procedurally difficult and appears unlikely for now.
Mr Wuest, who is not widely known nationally, could also find it hard to challenge Mr Merz.
“With someone from state-level politics who has never been active in federal politics before, there is naturally still some uncertainty as to how far he can gain popularity nationwide,” said Peter Matuschek, a political analyst at pollster Forsa.
Nevertheless, expectations are growing that pressure on Mr Merz will intensify, particularly with key state elections scheduled for September in eastern regions where the AfD is strong.
“Things could get tricky for the chancellor if reform projects continue to stall and the AfD triumphs in the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania,” the Bild daily reported.
