A high-stakes Westminster contest in the heart of London is about to give UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham an early verdict on his leadership — and on whether he can stop left-leaning voters drifting from Labour to the Greens.
Voters go to the polls tomorrow in the inner-London constituency of Holborn and St Pancras, in what has quickly become a first real measure of whether Burnham can rebuild trust in Labour after the party’s standing among left-wing voters slumped over the war in Gaza.
The contest was triggered by the resignation of former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, leaving the seat vacant.
Standing for the Greens is their prominent leader, Zack Polanski.
A growing number of voters have shifted towards the Greens, a trend that helped deliver the party its strongest-ever performance in local elections in May.
Zack Polanski’s leadership of the Greens has put Labour under pressure
While national politics has been shaped by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK presenting a serious challenge to Burnham, this bye-election looks set to be fought largely between Labour and the Greens. In recent weeks, thousands of activists from both parties have been out on the streets canvassing for support.
For Burnham, the vote offers a chance to demonstrate he can pull together the broader left-of-centre coalition — a signal that could bolster Labour’s push against a British right divided between Reform UK and the Conservatives.
Just as importantly, it provides an opportunity to puncture the momentum the Greens have built under Polanski’s leadership.
Even so, Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali, a local council leader, is widely tipped to retain the seat for the governing party.
Gains by the Greens in parts of London fed into Labour’s bleak local election showing in May, results that helped set off a chain of events ending on 20 July with Starmer’s resignation and Burnham taking over.
Labour’s candidate in the Holborn and St. Pancras bye-election, Sagal Abdi-Wali is tipped to win the seat
Since that leadership change, Labour has recovered in national opinion polls, while the Greens have run into difficulties.
At the party’s conference last weekend, Green members backed a motion describing Zionism as a form of racism — a decision that drew condemnation from British Jewish groups, Israel, and even some Green lawmakers.
Polanski, who is Jewish, did not take part in the vote.
Labour, which has adopted a more critical stance towards Israel and moved to ban imports of goods from West Bank settlements, said the Greens had crossed a line.
Damian Lyons Lowe, the head of polling firm Survation, said the constituency was among the Greens’ top targets and noted that governments typically struggle in bye-elections.
Yet he said the Greens’ anti-Starmer pitch — which proved potent in May — is now being tested under Burnham’s leadership.
“Burnham has made direct appeals to Green-minded voters in terms of some of the things they care about,” he told Reuters.
“The Burnham vibe check is very different to the Starmer-led Labour government, and that’s a problem for the Green Party.”
