Back from the Brink: Ukraine Pushes for a 1,200-Strong Prisoner Swap as Winter Looms
The kitchen clock in a small apartment in Zaporizhzhia ticks toward another cold evening. On the table, a chipped plate of holubtsi—cabbage rolls wrapped and studded with its stubborn warmth—cools untouched. The house is quiet in the way of places that have learned to listen for footsteps not their own.
“If my son could be home for New Year, I would not ask for anything else,” says Olena, a schoolteacher now in her late 40s, fingers worrying a thread on her sleeve. “We keep his chair at the table. Hope is the thing that keeps the house from freezing.”
That hope, fragile and fierce, is what Kyiv says it is trying to turn into reality. President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s security chief, Rustem Umerov, have said Kyiv is working to resume a large-scale prisoner exchange with Moscow — one that could see around 1,200 Ukrainians liberated from captivity. “We are … counting on the resumption of exchanges,” Mr Zelensky said in a video message posted on Telegram. “Many meetings, negotiations and calls are now devoted to this,” he added.
The Istanbul thread — and why it matters
The blueprint for such swaps was forged in Istanbul in 2022, with Turkish mediation that set out rules and procedures for coordinated exchanges. Since then, thousands have been traded between the warring countries in bouts of negotiation and sudden stoppage, each swap a fragile truce stitched into the larger tapestry of violence.
“We have been consulting in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates with the support of our partners,” Rustem Umerov wrote on Telegram, calling back to those Istanbul accords and announcing that “the parties agreed to return to the Istanbul agreements.” He framed the aim bluntly: the release of 1,200 Ukrainians.
Diplomacy in this war often resembles improvisational theater: actors appear on different stages, sometimes in full view, sometimes in whispered corridors. Turkish diplomacy has repeatedly played the role of stage manager. “Turkey’s mediation has been crucial before,” says Leyla Demir, a foreign policy analyst in Istanbul. “The Istanbul format established common rules that make mass exchanges logistically feasible. Returning to that framework makes sense from the perspective of process and predictability.”
Families, faith and the calendar of longing
There is urgency in the timing. Umerov has spoken of working “without pause so that Ukrainians who are to return from captivity can celebrate New Year and Christmas at home — at the family table and with their loved ones.” The line lands against a cultural calendar where New Year’s Eve and Orthodox Christmas (celebrated on January 7 by many in Ukraine) are high points for family gatherings, food, and ritual. The idea of reunions — mothers placing apricot cakes on plates, fathers pouring glasses of uzvar, children impatient for the midnight fireworks — fuels a public conversation about bargaining, deadlines and political maneuvering.
“We circle the holidays like migratory birds,” says Petro, a volunteer who helps trace detainees and provides lists to authorities. “Families make lists, light candles, and some still write letters to prisoners in the camps. The holidays make the waiting almost unbearable.”
On the ground: villages taken, towns under threat
The pressure behind the records of negotiations is not theoretical. On the southern front, Russian forces have reported capturing two more villages in Zaporizhzhia region — Mala Tokmachka and Rivnopillia — advances that Ukrainian officials say worsen the danger to nearby strategic towns such as Orikhiv and Gulyaipole. Moscow’s defence ministry released aerial footage of riveted flags and ruined houses in Rivnopillia, an image intended to tell a straightforward story of control.
Zaporizhzhia is one of four regions the Kremlin claims as its own; much of the territory remains under Russian occupation. The shifting frontline creates logistics challenges that directly complicate exchanges. Safe passage corridors, verification teams, medical checks — all of it becomes that much harder when artillery pummels the roads between negotiating rooms and exchange sites.
“Exchanges happen in a practical, human way: trucks, medics, lists checked against lists,” explains Major-General (ret.) Hannah Reynolds, an expert in military logistics who has worked with humanitarian convoys. “But the simplest logistical elements — a secure convoy route, a provisional ceasefire — are disrupted when fighting surges. It’s why the process is so fragile.”
Striking back: cross-border blows and strategic pressure
While talks churn, Kyiv has continued to strike deep into Russian territory, announcing strikes on refineries, including in the Samara region and others near Moscow. Ukraine’s General Staff said units struck the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery — an operation framed as an attempt to degrade Moscow’s fuel logistics.
“Targeting energy infrastructure is about constraining the operational reach,” says an independent defense analyst in Kyiv. “These strikes impose costs on resupply and can be bargaining chips in their own right. But they also escalate the stakes and complicate the political atmosphere for exchange talks.”
Diplomacy frozen, human lives wait
Peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow remain deadlocked. Even high-profile diplomatic moves have faltered; a planned Budapest summit between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin did not go ahead, leaving another projected diplomatic window shut.
Against this backdrop, prisoner swaps are among the few pragmatic, human-centered negotiations that cut through the fog of geopolitics. They are also invaluable for morale. Each released captive is both a relief and a message: that reciprocity, even in war, still operates on a thread of mutual human recognition.
“When a soldier comes back, the morale on the line changes,” says Olena Mykolaivna, a paramedic who tends to returned prisoners. “Families stabilize. Units breathe.” She pauses. “That matters strategically and morally.”
What the world should watch
- Watch the logistics: Will negotiators secure clear corridors and agreed verification mechanisms?
- Watch timing: Can talks move quickly enough for families hoping for holiday reunions?
- Watch the leverage: How will strikes and battlefield gains alter bargaining positions?
We often think of peace in grand treaties and headlines. But sometimes peace — or an inch of humanity — arrives as a single person stepping off a bus, blinking against daylight, embraced by a sobbing mother. It arrives in chairs pulled out and plates set for someone who was once declared nowhere.
So ask yourself: when you read about negotiations in Istanbul or footage of flags over ruined houses, are you seeing strategy or the faces behind it? The answer matters. Because while diplomats argue over leverage, millions watch the calendar and hope a holiday meal might mean something that numbers and maps cannot show — the return of a life to its ordinary orbit.
For people like Olena, the question is simple. “Can one winter take away the rest of our lives, or will one exchange give them back?” she asks, looking at the empty chair. “If it comes, we’ll lay another tablecloth.”
