A fresh burst of US air strikes and stark warnings from Tehran have underscored just how distant any breakthrough remains in efforts to end the war.
Iran and the United States are still nowhere near an agreement to halt the conflict, a senior Iranian official said, even as diplomacy has intensified to prevent a slide back into major fighting after the US midterm elections.
Overnight, the United States launched what it described as “defensive” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island. A US official said the targets were surface-to-air missiles that had been used against US assets. Another US official stressed the operation appeared limited and was not intended as a signal that large-scale combat had resumed.
Qatar has increased its mediation push amid concerns the conflict, launched by the United States and Israel in February, could flare up again once today’s elections are over.
“Mediators are working hard to narrow gaps between Tehran and Washington,” the senior Iranian official said, following the arrival in Tehran last night of Qatari mediators for talks on a version of a draft US-Iran deal that has been negotiated over the past eight days.
The Iranian official warned that “Tehran’s conditions must be met if the US wants Hormuz reopened”—a reference to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies.
Doha said on today that Washington and Tehran were still committed to the mediation track and were considering proposals presented by intermediaries. Although the Qatari team that travelled to Tehran has since returned to Doha, negotiations were continuing, according to Qatar foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari.
“There are intensive joint regional efforts underway to avoid escalation,” he told a news briefing, saying Qatar still believed an agreement remained possible that could open the door to future negotiations.
The Iranian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said nuclear talks would only begin after Iran’s conditions were met, and insisted Tehran would not accept what he called Washington’s “excessive demands”.
He also warned Iran would respond forcefully—inside the region and beyond—to US strikes.
Oil prices rose by about $1 today after plunging more than 7% the previous day on optimism that diplomacy was gaining traction.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they shot down a US MQ-9 drone and two Lucas drones in airspace near the Strait of Hormuz.
Qalibaf: The ball is in Washington’s court
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Tehran had delivered what he described as a “strong and rational response”, leaving Washington responsible for the next move.
“The enemy seeks to force the Iranian nation into submission through threats and military action, but they are sorely mistaken; Iran will not submit,” Mr Qalibaf said. He added that if the US miscalculated, Iran’s reaction would be unpredictable and would ignore geographical constraints.
Across the region, governments have been preparing for the possibility that US President Donald Trump could restart attacks once the midterm vote concludes.
Yet Mr Trump appeared to cast doubt yesterday on whether he would follow through on previous threats to resume military strikes after the election, saying he believed Tehran wanted a deal quickly and that an agreement “could happen”.
When reporters asked if he was considering strikes on Iran after the midterms, Mr Trump responded: “No”.
Ali Abdollahi, head of Iran’s armed forces general staff, said Iran’s military was updating its target lists to include US and Israeli material and non-material assets, and would respond immediately to any threat, without geographical limits.
Since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei ordered the armed forces to react immediately and without “geographic limits” to any enemy threat, Iranian officials and media have increasingly floated the idea of hitting bases beyond the region that are used to launch attacks on Iran.
Hardline newspaper Kayhan said US facilities in Britain, Italy, Greece, Romania, Albania and Cyprus could be struck by Iranian missiles if war resumes.
Iranian-Saudi talks
Alongside messages exchanged indirectly between Tehran and Washington through intermediaries, other regional diplomatic channels are also being used in an effort to stop the crisis from worsening.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said discussions with Saudi Arabia were continuing, focused on developing new regional security arrangements that would not involve foreign military forces.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said indirect talks were taking place
Last week, senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian counterparts in Tehran, marking the first high-level engagement between Iran and the three countries since August. The US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February, and the fighting has since expanded into Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Riyadh said the trip was aimed at opening negotiating channels to “prevent the return of military escalation,” as clashes between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis intensified.
Houthi strikes on the kingdom increased as the militia advanced towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—another crucial shipping chokepoint on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz.
The Houthis have also hit Saudi oil facilities and airports, including Riyadh’s international airport, disrupting flights and oil exports and prompting retaliatory Saudi air strikes on Yemen.
Yemen, one of the world’s poorest countries, has been engulfed in civil war since the Houthis drove the internationally recognised, Saudi-backed government from the capital, Sanaa, in 2014.
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