Switzerland heads to the polls tomorrow to weigh a proposal that would lock the country’s population below 10 million — a referendum critics and supporters alike have compared to the UK’s Brexit vote because of the potential shockwaves for the economy and ties with the European Union.
What does the proposal envisage?
The initiative would require that Switzerland’s population, now 9.1 million, does not rise above 10 million before 2050 — a threshold that is not expected to be reached until the early 2040s.
It would also trigger earlier action: once the population hits 9.5 million, the government would be compelled to tighten immigration rules, particularly around asylum and family reunification. That point is currently projected for about 2031, though it could arrive as early as 2029.
If Switzerland reached 10 million, authorities would have to deploy “all available” measures to keep within the cap, including the possibility of ending international agreements deemed to fuel population growth.
An advert for the Yes campaign seen on the outskirts of Zurich
Under the plan, if the population remained above the limit for two years and no special provisions were agreed to ensure compliance, Switzerland would have to terminate its 1999 freedom of movement agreement with the EU at the next possible date.
The pact enables EU citizens to live in Switzerland if they work or study there, and grants Swiss citizens the same rights in EU countries. It also allows the right to stay — including for family members — to continue after employment has ended. Switzerland also retains an “emergency brake” on free movement in cases of “serious economic or social problems”, though it is subject to arbitration.
Why has it been launched?
Switzerland’s population has expanded much more quickly than that of the EU since the free movement accord took effect in 2002.
Higher wages and low taxes have long attracted newcomers to the Alpine nation, factors that have also helped draw companies and boosted demand for skilled labour.
The right-wing Swiss People’s Party, or SVP, is behind the population cap initiative, saying mass immigration has strained public services and housing and arguing that crime has increased as well.
What does it need to pass?
To succeed, the measure must win a double majority: support from most voters nationwide and from a majority of Switzerland’s cantons, or states.
In 2014, Swiss voters narrowly endorsed an SVP initiative to reintroduce immigration quotas with the EU, although subsequent political negotiations softened its impact.
What could a cap mean for the economy?
With an ageing population, Switzerland depends on immigration to fill many roles, and most arrivals come from elsewhere in Europe.
Foreign nationals now represent almost 28% of the permanent population, and a recent study found they made up nearly two-in-five company founders in Switzerland.
The EU is by far Switzerland’s most important trading partner, and in late 2024 the two sides reached a bilateral accord aimed at deepening economic integration — an agreement the SVP opposes.
That accord is now working its way through parliament and is expected to face a difficult referendum in Switzerland, a country that US President Donald Trump last year targeted with the highest tariffs in Europe.
Because freedom of movement is a cornerstone of the EU single market, any move to curb access for European workers could scramble Switzerland’s bilateral relationship with the bloc.
